New Met Office ‘breakthrough’ weather model to deliver more accurate forecasts
The Met Office has secured a new suite of space weather forecast models that can predict how space weather will affect satellites, aviation and communications and services relying on the global navigation satellite system.
The technology, produced in the UK, is currently running on the Met Office’s new supercomputer and focuses on how weather in space will affect the layers of Earth’s upper atmosphere.
The Advanced Community Networked Assimilation System has been described as a major breakthrough for UK atmospheric science.
Science Secretary Sir Patrick Vallance said: “Once again, cutting-edge British innovations are making a remarkable difference to our daily lives – this time from far above the atmosphere.
“This is a really exciting example of how a better understanding of what’s happening in space can protect the technology we all rely on, from the GPS in our phones to keeping the power grid running.”
The suite was built at the University of Birmingham and developed in partnership with the University of Lancaster, the Universities of Leeds, Bath and Leicester and the British Antarctic Survey.
The Met Office Space Weather Operations Center will be able to predict how space weather will affect the thermosphere, which extends approximately 50 to 400 miles above the Earth’s surface. It will also be able to estimate the impact on the ionosphere through which radio and GPS signals pass.
The modeling will be able to take near real-time data of the ionosphere and thermosphere and analyze them together with estimates of solar activity from the sun.
Professor Farideh Honary, from the University of Lancaster, said: “We are pleased to see our research being developed into a useful product to be used by industry. The research and modeling carried out by Lancaster is relevant to the aviation industry, and in particular to flights using polar routes dependent on high-frequency communications.
“These flights have increased significantly since their initial opening in the 1990s due to operational advantages such as reduced flight times and fuel consumption, meaning cost savings and environmental benefits such as lower carbon emissions.”
The Met Office said it would complement existing space weather forecast models that predict events arriving from the sun’s surface.
Simon Machin, the agency’s space weather manager, said: “This delivers a world-leading capability that provides greater confidence and forecasting ability than any model currently in use anywhere in the world.
“This isn’t just about science; it’s about protecting the systems we rely on every day. From aircraft communications to the GPS on your phone, space weather can affect us all.”
