Unlike Australia, Canada continues to implement its long-term immigration plan

Canada’s steady approach to immigration reform shows that long-term planning, rather than ad hoc responses, provides stability even in uncertain times. Dr Abul Rizvi reports.

Consistent with long-term information disclosed 2024 migration plan (yes, unlike Australia, Canada has a long-term immigration plan), Canada will reduce the size of its permanent program by 4% to 380,000 in 2026. There will be much bigger cuts to students (a 49% drop to 155,000) and casual workers (a 37% drop to 230,000).

This was after making major cuts to both permanent and temporary programs for 2025.

Canada during COVID population growth It fell to 0.3% in 2020. It then rose spectacularly to 3.1% in 2023, driven by a net increase of 471,817 permanent residents plus 820,766 of temporary residents (mostly students and temporary workers). This allowed Canada’s population to rise to over 41 million.

However, with unemployment rising from 5% in early 2023 to 6.6% in mid-2024 and the participation rate falling from 65.6% in early 2023 to 64.9% in mid-2024, the Government of Canada has made major cuts to:

permanent migration from the planning level of 485,000 in 2024 to 395,000 in 2025; 380,000 in 2026; 365,000 in 2026; And
students and temporary entrants fell from a net increase of 820,766 in 2023 to an estimated net decrease of 445,901 in 2025 and a net decrease of 455,622 in 2026.

The Government of Canada is also forecasting further cuts in 2024, 2026 and 2027 and is currently tracking this.

The additional cuts announced by Canada come against a background where the participation rate remains largely unchanged and the unemployment rate rises to 7.1% (this is unlikely to be linked to changes in immigration, given other major issues facing the Canadian economy, including the trade war with the US).

In the March quarter of 2025, natural increase in Canada fell into negative territory and the overall population growth rate was officially 0%. Canada had predicted in 2024 that population growth would fall into negative territory in 2025-26.

The permanent immigration program will continue to focus heavily on students and temporary entrants who are already in Canada and have jobs in emerging technologies, healthcare and skilled trades. This helps reduce net migration and reduce pressure on the permanent migration programme. In contrast, pressure on Australia’s permanent migration program continues to mount as measures taken to deal with the consequences of the post-COVID net migration boom are inadequate.

Government of Canada two general goals For immigrant recruitment:

reducing the temporary population to less than 5% of the overall Canadian program; And
Achieving permanent admission to less than 1% of the general population.

Whatever the merits of Canada’s immigration plan, what Canada has shown is that it is possible to develop and implement a long-term immigration plan. This makes the Australian Government’s arguments against long-term migration planning seem increasingly absurd.

Dr Abul Rizvi Independent Australian columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Immigration Service. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.

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