Untested TVK adding suspense to the script of Tamil Nadu thriller this time

It has been more than two years since top Tamil actor Vijay launched his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). However, with no election start so far, there is little clarity on the party’s potential vote share in the upcoming Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Assembly elections.

Optimism remains high within the party, with some officials unofficially predicting a vote share of around 25%. But outside estimates vary widely. A section of observers believe that TVK may mirror the debut performance of late Vijayakant’s DMDK by garnering a gain of around 8-10% in its debut. Others suggest the party could get closer to 15 percent.

Predicting election results in Tamil Nadu has never been easy, especially in Assembly elections. The entry of TVK and Mr. Vijay, a political novice with Prime Ministerial ambitions, has only complicated the arithmetic further.

The party skipped the last Lok Sabha polls and the February 2025 Erode (East) Assembly general elections. As a result, the true support base remains untested. His decision to go it alone paved the way for a four-cornered contest in Tamil Nadu.

Was this strategic restraint to avoid exposure to early elections a deliberate move by Mr. Vijay to keep his political capital intact ahead of a risky exit?

Professor G. Palanithurai, former dean of Student Welfare at Gandhigram Rural Institute, said, “Mr. Vijay knows what he is doing. He goes by the script in politics as well as in his films.”

There is a theory that Dravidian rhetoric killed intellectualism in the state. Professor Palanithurai, an expert on grassroots democracy, said that he visited campuses and said that the lack of political discourse in higher education institutions led young people to turn to actors over time.

Additionally, corruption was regulated. Ruling DMK and Opposition AIADMK accuse each other of corruption but never take action against each other while in power. “Mr. Vijay has felt this. That is why he is focusing on anti-corruption to attract voters. Vijayakanth too fought on the theme of anti-corruption, but Mr. Vijay is more popular than Vijayakanth. He attracts huge crowds, especially the youth. Even the ruling DMK cannot voluntarily bring in such crowds,” he said.

While appreciating both social and industrial development policies of Dravidian parties, the academic said politics has now become corrupt. “Mr. Vijay is a film personality. He understands the psychology of the masses. The rule of law has now become the law of the ruling party. That is why he opposes the ruling governments,” he added.

“On the other hand, unlike [actor-turned-Chief Ministers] MGR and Jayalalithaa are not close to Mr. Vijay rank and file. He is in constant isolation. Also, TVK’s second leadership line is unimpressive. But Tamil Nadu’s distinctive politics lacks collective leadership because Dravidianism has shown the way to animalism. “Mass appeal is important,” he argued.

Against the ideologically inclined DMK and the politically adept late M. Karunanidhi, it was the personal charisma and political acumen of MGR and J. Jayalalithaa that kept the AIADMK in power longer than its arch rival. Mr. Vijay seems to be slowly taking on the role of charismatic leader with his mass appeal.

But is this enough to penetrate the world of politics? “Popularity in cinema does not always bring votes. We cannot draw a parallel between Mr. Vijay and MGR. MGR had a strong hold in the party and broke ranks when he was the treasurer of DMK. He campaigned and worked hard all these years. He also attracted the poor and the subaltern in his films. The titles would resonate in the communities, e.g. Vivasayi, Padagotti and Meenava Nanban” said academician P. Ramajayam.

“Grassroots politics requires social and political mobilization involving various groups such as minorities and subalterns,” he said. “Mr. Vijay’s popularity seems to be higher among the youth. But he has not been electorally tested so far. He is confident and wants only positive results,” he added.

Long-time political observers feel that the party needs social and political mobilization as well as mass appeal. TVK needs to have around 300 to 400 cadres per booth for each to get around 100 votes. If the party gets 15% of the votes, Mr. Vijay will have a future as a politician.

“Mr. Vijay definitely draws a huge crowd and the crowds are organic. Only the two leaders are not paying the crowd— [Naam Tamilar Katchi’s] Seeman and Mr. Vijay,” said R. Kannan, biographer of former Chief Ministers CN Annadurai and MGR.

When asked if Mr. Vijay will be successful, he says: “May 4 [election counting date] We will answer.”

It was published – 07 April 2026 17:58 IST