US-Iran war will cause spike in food prices, NFU chief warns
The boss of a major farmers’ union has warned that the crisis in the Middle East will cause the biggest rise in food prices since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, fruit and vegetable producers have warned that UK supermarket shelves could be seen empty if nothing is done to support the sector amid increasing turbulence.
National Farmers Union president Tom Bradshaw said: Times He said the US-Iran conflict was triggering a “wave of inflation” that was likely to peak in the autumn.
But he said food inflation was unlikely to exceed the 19.2 percent increase by March 2023, the year after the Ukrainian war began.
The union leader also warned that profiteering by fuel and fertilizer suppliers could also worsen inflation.
Speaking after a meeting with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) last week to discuss the UK’s food resilience, Mr Bradshaw added: “We have already seen this play out in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has led to the ongoing cost of living crisis there.
“And with the removal of farm support, which adds a layer of resilience to many farm businesses, farmers are more exposed to global markets than ever before.
“While the impact on food production and food price inflation will depend on what happens in the coming weeks, this is another reminder of the need to build resilience in UK farming.”
The NFU’s latest warnings come after fruit and vegetable producers said they may be forced to halt production and end the season early due to rising energy prices and transport costs following the war in Iran.
Lee Stiles, secretary of the Lea Valley Growers Association (LVGA), warned supermarket shelves could remain empty if nothing is done to support the industry.
He said: “Growers are now in the same situation as when Russia invaded Ukraine because wholesale gas prices are slowly rising.
“With rising costs, many growers feel they are better off sending their staff home, stopping for the season and not producing anything.
“They will have to make a decision in the next few weeks about whether it will be economical to continue for the rest of the year.”
LVGA includes 70 greenhouse growers, mostly around the London border but also across the country. They are the largest grower of cucumbers in the UK and also produce sweet peppers, aubergines and tomatoes.
If growers cannot afford to turn on their boilers, greenhouses are no longer heated, meaning crops stop growing and yields decrease.
Mr Stiles added: “When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, supermarket shelves were left empty.
“Supermarkets agreed a fixed price with growers last year. Now they can intervene if they want and agree to pay more for the product due to the increased cost of production.”
“But they look ready for shelves to be empty again and stocks to run low.”
This sentiment was echoed by Rachael Williams of the West Sussex Breeders’ Association, who said: “I’ve been in touch with our breeders and everyone is obviously worried. They’re worried about what’s going to happen, how it’s going to develop and the uncertainty of it all.”
Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer has issued a stark warning to energy bosses, saying he “will not allow companies to make huge profits off the suffering of working people”.
He said the government had issued a “legal mandate” for energy companies to pass on savings from government policies already announced, also raising concerns about allegations that heating oil suppliers were canceling orders and then increasing bills as prices rose.
