US payrolls revisions jolt markets, making Fed look behind the curve
By Davide Barbuscia
NEW YORK (Reuters) -They Moon A surprise weakening in the US labor market shook investors on Friday, because heavy revisions in recent months have raised the fear that the Federal Reserve may have been blinded in recent months and may have to be caught with interest rate cuts.
In his employment report on Friday, the Ministry of Labor Labor Statistics Office said that the non -Farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July after revising 14,000 in June. Economists who participated in the survey by Reuters, estimated that 110,000 employment increased after the previously reported by 147,000 in June.
The report comes two days after the US Federal Bank changes the comparison interest rate and avoids the signal of close -rate deductions, looking back at the next policy meeting in September.
According to CME Group data, this has changed significantly on Friday, and in September, 25 basis points cutting rates jumped to 81% after data from 38% on Thursday.
“Fed’s job is becoming increasingly difficult based on the deterioration of economic data,” Manulife John Hancock Investments, “Fed’s work is becoming increasingly difficult.” He said. “These revisions are big and really a game change for the Fed’s response function, and therefore a meeting they want to revise this FED meeting.”
The Office of the Statistics of the Working Statistics said that the revisions of May and June are far above the norm. He did not give any reason for reviewed data, but “Monthly revisions stemmed from the additional reports received from enterprises and government agencies since the latest forecasts and since the recalculation of seasonal factors.”
In May, the non -agricultural payroll gain fell from 125,000 to 19,000 from 144,000 to 19,000, while the downward revision of June was 133,000. In total, employment for two months is 258,000 lower than initially reported at the moment.
“The US government is painful that the US government has an inappropriate model for payroll calculations,” Asset Management Portfolio Manager Michael Green said. He said. “If you don’t have reliable data, you do bad policy.”
Spencer Judge, the founder of Macro Risk Protection Fund Tolou Capital Management, said that the dismissal in various government offices, which are part of US President Donald Trump’s plans to reduce extravagant government expenditures, said that the data obtained from credit card data and the data to the independent encounter index, he said.
