Why Welsh voters turned their backs on the Labour party | Welsh politics

On Friday night, Keir Starmer and much of the Westminster Labor Group were quietly relieved that local election results in England were not as bad as feared. But Labour’s collapse in the Senedd in Wales was more far-reaching than even the most pessimistic predictions.

Welsh Labor has been the democratic world’s most successful election-winning machine for more than 100 years, but the political giant limped into third place this week with just nine seats in the 96-seat parliament. A new page has opened in Wales’ political and cultural history: pro-independence Plaid Cymru is preparing to form a minority government.

Richard Wyn Jones, director of the Center for Governance in Wales at Cardiff University, said: “For those of us who only know Labor dominance… the fact that it could collapse with such dramatic totality – it is quite difficult to convey the shock. It was truly astonishing. Labor was absolutely silenced.”

“We knew Labor was in deep trouble in the post-industrial valleys… but the fact that Plaid could win half the 12 seats in Cardiff? Really everywhere you look it’s hard to identify any solid areas where they can rebuild.”

Having spectacularly conceded defeat before a single constituency result was announced, Labor issued a statement saying it expected only 10 MS seats of the 96 available in the newly expanded Senedd chamber to be returned. The party has never before held fewer than 26 seats in a 60-seat parliament.

The first minister, Labour’s Eluned Morgan, reached the tragic figure as the results were announced in the count in her West Wales constituency of Ceredigion Penfro. Of the six available seats, three went to Plaid Cymru, two to Reform and one to the Conservatives; this made Morgan the first government leader in the United Kingdom to lose his seat while in office.

He immediately resigned in a concession speech. The party announced on Saturday that Ken Skates, MP for Fflint Wrecsam and former cabinet secretary for transport, will serve as interim leader.

“I am proud of what Welsh Labor has achieved for this nation over many years… But the people of Wales have rejected us and we owe it to the people of Wales to listen. To understand. And to rebuild,” he said.

Morgan received a long standing ovation from the hall. Successful candidates expressed their admiration for the Cardiff-born first minister’s attitude. energetic campaignand praised his career in public service.

But nothing Morgan could do would be enough to stop the bleeding. Support for the party was already waning before he takes over in 2024 following the disastrous short tenure of his predecessor, Vaughan Gething.

Wales embarked on devolution more cautiously than Scotland and Northern Ireland, and initially very limited powers hindered the Cardiff Bay administrations. Supporters insist the party has sided with the 14-year Conservative government in Westminster by shielding public services from the effects of austerity, Brexit and the Covid pandemic.

Welsh Labor had a partial retention problem, but it also had to deal with mounting criticism, much of it justified, of its performance in office. After nearly 30 years of public services being run by Labor, Wales has fallen behind other UK nations, particularly on poverty, education and the NHS. Poor performance despite significant spending increases.

Starmer’s election was expected to strengthen Welsh Labor as a “power partnership” in Cardiff and London, but Starmer’s unpopularity instead dragged this down, leaving the Cardiff Bay executive unable to blame the Conservatives for perceived failures.

Starmer appeared unconcerned about the state of the Welsh wing of the party and warned his cabinet against “overly deferential relationships” with devolved governments.

Last year, 11 Labor Senedd members took the extraordinary step of writing to the prime minister, claiming his administration had either been “deeply insensitive” to Wales or was guilty of “acting unconstitutionally” by failing to deliver on promises of devolution, including for justice, policing and crown property.

Alun Davies, a long-standing Labor member of the Senedd who lost his seat in Blaenau Gwent, told Channel 4 News the party’s defeat was “manufactured in Downing Street” due to Starmer’s “negligence” towards Wales.

“This isn’t just midterm blues or a protest vote. This is a very profound departure from a party to which people have felt an almost cultural allegiance for over a century,” he said.

Another Labor source said: “This outcome has been long awaited. People are disappointed with the Welsh government’s handling of the NHS and education. We must take responsibility for that. People also did not feel the changes in the UK Labor government quickly enough. It is up to all of us to rebuild the party in Wales.”

Welsh Labor will elect a new leader in the coming weeks but the contest will reflect the extent of the defeat. There are only nine people who can be elected because the leader is a member of the Senedd and candidates need the support of 20% of Member States.

Laura McAllister, professor of public policy at Cardiff University, said the party needed to be “stronger about its Welshness” if it wanted to survive.

“There is one steady increase the number of people who consider themselves solely Welsh or Welsh first and English second. If [Labour] If they want to capture this group, they need to show once again that they are different from the UK Labor Party, with their own identity and agenda, as they were in the early days of devolution.clean red water‘ he added.