Vance’s whirlwind visit may not help Orbán to the election victory he craves | Hungary

Even before the plane carrying JD and Usha Vance touched down in Budapest, the Hungarian government had hailed their two-day visit as a new golden age in relations between Washington and Budapest.

What followed was a whirlwind of politics in which the US vice president became directly involved in the country’s heated election campaign, just days before Hungarians voted.

As Vance criss-crossed the capital, arriving at the city’s Carmelite monastery and later at a pre-election rally, he praised Viktor Orbán and sharply rebuked the US and Hungary’s “shared insider threat” to far-left ideology in universities, media and entertainment; All the while, he broke sharply with the unspoken tradition that had long prevented most politicians from playing an active role in foreign elections.

Vance’s harshest criticism of the day was directed at the EU, with comments that could sour the already tense transatlantic relationship. Vance attacked the bloc, accusing it of foreign interference, even though he repeatedly emphasized that he went to Hungary to “help” Orbán in the elections.

Hours later, Vance attended Orbán’s pre-election rally, sending the packed football stadium into a frenzy as he called Donald Trump and put the US president on speakerphone. “I love Hungary and I love Viktor,” Trump told the cheering crowd, while Vance picked up the phone and described him as “a great guy.”

The president, who had previously warned that “an entire civilization will die tonight” if Tehran did not accept the demands of the US in its war in Iran, appeared to easily shift into campaign mode. “He kept your country well,” he told the crowd as giant flags of the United States and Hungary hung from the rafters. “And let me tell you, I love him very much, but I wouldn’t have made that call if I didn’t think he was doing a good job.”

Meanwhile, the president’s eldest son was in Bosnia’s Serb Republic, demonstrating support for ousted pro-Russian leader Milorad Dodik and criticizing the European Union as a “disaster.”

Vance’s visit thrusts the US administration into a difficult campaign in which many are participating. surveys show Orbán is in danger of losing his 16-year grip on power. As Hungarians grapple with economic stagnation, deteriorating public services and widespread corruption, Orbán faces an unprecedented challenge from Péter Magyar, a former senior member of Orbán’s Fidesz party.

Although officials in Budapest held out hope that Trump would personally come to help the Orbán campaign, they were thrown into excitement when the White House confirmed Vance’s visit.

When Air Force Two touched down in Budapest on Tuesday, the country’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, described the visit as historic. “There is no doubt that this is a golden age for Hungarian-American relations,” he said.

The day revealed the common playbook between Orbán and the Maga movement, as leaders railed against Brussels, immigration and Ukraine, and praised what Vance described as “the values ​​of western civilization.”

Throughout it all, Vance made little effort to hide his intentions. “I am here for a simple reason, because I admire what you are fighting for,” he said, waving Hungarian flags at the evening rally. “You are fighting for your freedom, your sovereignty, and I am here because President Trump and I wish you success and we are here fighting with you.”

But there was no mention of the grievances that had propelled the opposition Tisza party to the top of the polls; a long-neglected public healthcare system, wages ranked third-lowest in the EU and systemic corruption ranked worst in the bloc.

Nor was there any mention of the scandals that dogged Orbán during the campaign; From allegations that Russian intelligence agencies tried to influence the election in its favor, as well as disinformation networks with links to Russia, to the call in which Orbán is said to have told Vladimir Putin: “I am at your service.”

The clash of narratives led to a polarizing election campaign; Orbán has sought to cast the war in Ukraine as the country’s biggest threat and argued that his personal relationships with world leaders make him uniquely capable of keeping Hungary at peace, while Magyar has called on Hungarians to base their votes on domestic issues.

Even though the visit made headlines around the world, analysts were skeptical it would change the election results. “The vast majority of Hungary’s 7.6 million voters have made up their minds about where their crosses will go in Sunday’s vote,” said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe managing director of Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy on social media. “It is unlikely that very few of the approximately 350,000 people who did not vote and those who could vote will be convinced by the enthusiasm generated by Vance’s party in the city.”

Added to this is the fact that Trump’s popularity among the Hungarian community is questionable; whereas very few people know who Vance is; Márton Bene, political analyst at the TK Institute of Political Science in Budapest. “In conclusion, [Trump’s] “Support in itself is only a real advantage in the eyes of a narrowing segment of the electorate.”

But Bene saw the potential for Vance’s visit to spark controversy in the days following the election, given Vance’s harsh accusations of election interference coming from Brussels. “This provided an external reference point, articulated at the highest level, for this narrative, which could then provide important discursive resources for attempts to question the election results,” he said.

However, Bene added that the visit could do more harm than good to Orbán. For months the Prime Minister had tried to claim that he and his contacts were the only way to keep Hungary safe in an unstable world. However, at the press conference, Vance said that the US administration would work with any elected Hungarian administration.

“Péter Magyar immediately evaluated this statement,” Bene said, referring to the opposition candidate’s quick response posted on social media in which he said the Tisza government would consider the United States as a key partner.

Bene said the result “casts doubt” on one of the central claims of the Orbán campaign, which the entire visit aimed to highlight. “So effective representation of Hungary’s interests is only possible through Orbán’s personal relationships.”