Venezuela attack unlikely to shake oil markets in near term

President Donald Trump’s ouster of President Nicolas Maduro in oil-rich Venezuela is unlikely to shock energy markets in the near term, analysts told CNBC on Saturday.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst and head of research at A/S Global Risk Management, said that although the scale of the US attack was unexpected, markets were already pricing in a dispute with Venezuela that would disrupt oil exports.

Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. But according to Rasmussen, the South American country currently produces less than a million barrels of oil per day; This is less than 1% of global oil production.

It exports about half of its production, about 500,000 barrels, Rasmussen said. He said that the conflict also arose because there was an oversupply in the global oil market and demand was relatively weak, which was a usual situation in the first quarter of the year.

Rasmussen predicted: Brent crude oil Prices will only rise by $1 to $2, or even less, when futures open Sunday night. He predicted that Brent would fall lower next week to Friday’s close of $60.75.

“Even though it’s a huge geopolitical event that you would normally expect to be positive or push oil prices up, the bottom line is there’s still plenty of oil in the market so oil prices aren’t going to go ballistic.” he said.

Analyst Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy said he had advised clients before the weekend that about a third of Venezuela’s oil production was at risk. While he doesn’t foresee cutting all of Venezuela’s production, he told CNBC that it wouldn’t pose a meaningful risk to oil markets in the short term.

The oil market experienced the biggest annual decline in the last five years in 2025. Global benchmark Brent fell nearly 19% last year, while US crude lost nearly 20%. The market remained under pressure as OPEC+ increased production after years of production cuts. The US also produced a record level of just over 13.8 million barrels per day.

Analysts told CNBC that oil prices could fall further as the overthrow of the regime raises the possibility of increasing oil production in Venezuela.

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, predicted that exports could approach 3 million barrels in the medium term if the new Venezuelan government leads to the lifting of sanctions and the return of foreign investors.

“The future of Venezuela is going to have a bearish impact on the market because there is nowhere to go but up,” said energy industry consultant David Goldwyn, a former senior energy official at the State Department in the Obama administration.

Trump said at a press conference on Saturday that the current embargo on Venezuelan oil is still in effect. He also said U.S. oil companies would invest billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector. Trump did not provide details about which companies would invest or how, nor did he explain how the United States would temporarily govern Venezuela “with a group.”

Given the uncertainty about interim and future governments in Venezuela, it is difficult to predict whether U.S. oil companies will invest, Goldwyn said.

“Everything we’ve learned from Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries about government transitions is that transitions are difficult,” he said. “No company is going to commit to investing billions of dollars in a long-term operation until they know what the terms are. And they don’t know what the terms are until you find out what the government is going to be.”

Goldwyn added: ExxonMobilVenezuela’s national oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), is still waiting to collect its debt.

Rapidan Energy’s McNally said it’s a complex proposition for U.S. oil companies. He said oil producers have not forgotten being kicked out of Venezuela in the early 2000s, when the country seized assets from foreign oil companies. However, he added that access to the world’s largest oil reserves would be “tempting” for US oil companies if sanctions were lifted.

But that would require decades of investment and billions of dollars, McNally said. Whether it’s worth it comes down to one basic question: Does the world need this much oil?

“Until late last year, the consensus in the market was that oil demand would not increase in four years. That’s over because of electric vehicles, fuel efficiency policies and climate change policies,” said McNally.

But as the United States and other countries, including China and Canada, weaken climate policies and electric vehicle sales decline, the prospect of investing in Venezuela has become much more attractive.

“All of a sudden you start saying: ‘Wow, we’re going to need more oil,'” he said.

— Additional reporting contributed by CNBC’s Victor Loh