Republicans could still win the House in the 2026 election: Scalise

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said Thursday that Republicans can still win a majority in the 2026 midterm elections despite the party’s intense negative influence ahead of a key contest in November.

Polls show that voters were dissatisfied with President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans ahead of the election, driven primarily by dissatisfaction with the economy. recently AP-NORC poll It found that Trump’s approval rating for the economy had fallen to 30 percent, while a whopping 70 percent disapproved of the president’s job performance.

The election has significant ramifications and will effectively determine whether Trump enters 2027 as a lame duck with a Democratic Congress or whether Republicans will remain in the majority for the final two years of his presidency.

In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday, Scalise argued that Republicans can still weather the storm caused in part by skyrocketing prices due to the war with Iran.

“This is a path that focuses on engagement, which is number one, and delivering what we have to offer to finally start to turn around this mess that we inherited a year and a half ago,” Scalise said.

Americans are suffering from high gas prices resulting from the war with Iran ahead of the summer driving season, and the situation shows little sign of abating. WE crude oil Gas prices are hovering around $105 on Thursday morning, and national gas prices currently average $4.30 per gallon. AAA. Voters have also repeatedly criticized Trump and Republicans over the cost of living; Democrats swept the 2025 primary with an affordable message.

Scalise also criticized Democrats for resisting funding the Department of Homeland Security, arguing that Republicans won on immigration in 2024 and could win in 2026.

“Midterms are always tough on the incumbent, but this isn’t your father’s Democratic Party,” Scalise said. he said. “Democrats in Washington have voted against these measures every step of the way, including shutting down the entire Department of Homeland Security. At the end of the day, this is not good for them… so they’re going to have to answer for this in November.”

Democrats resisted funding for DHS after Trump’s crackdown on immigrants in Minnesota resulted in the deaths of two U.S. citizens. Trump’s support also dropped in AP-NORC’s poll on immigration, with only 40% of voters approving.

Democrats have a significant advantage in taking the House of Representatives in November, with a 5.2 percentage point lead. RealClearPolitics overall voting average. Republicans moved from a three-seat majority to a five-seat majority following the resignation and death of Democratic House members.

But the Senate will be a tougher climb for Democrats as the party must navigate a difficult map this cycle. To shift the balance of power in the upper chamber, Democrats need to flip at least four states while maintaining all the seats they currently hold.

“This is a tall order, especially given that Republicans currently have a large fundraising advantage, and we expect Democrats to trail and hold 49-50 seats. Our base case scenario is that Republicans will narrowly retain control of the Senate,” a recent Wolfe Research report obtained by CNBC said.

— CNBC’s michael bloom contributed to this report.