Visits from China down 60% in January 2026
Visitors (L) dressed in kimono look at photos they took during a visit to Sensoji Temple in the Asakusa district of central Tokyo on September 16, 2025.
Richard A. Brooks | Afp | Getty Images
After living in Tokyo Over the course of a year, Karin Nordin noticed something strange. The hot spring towns of Kusatsu and Zao, normally filled with Chinese tourists, had thinned out.
“We have seen fewer mainland Chinese tourists in Tokyo,” the 33-year-old Malaysian told CNBC after returning from Japan in early 2026.
Hotel prices in tourist areas appear to have stabilized and, unlike previous years, no longer increase for holidays in mainland China.
Nordin’s experience is representative of Japan’s broader tourism landscape, where Chinese tourists are staying away from Asia’s third-largest economy amid a diplomatic row that began last November over comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Data Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) announced that the number of arrivals from mainland China in January fell by more than 60% year on year, but the overall number of tourists was just under 4.9% year on year.
In December, The number of Chinese tourists dropped by 43.3 percentHowever, the number of tourists from all countries increased by 3.7%.
Before November, Chinese tourists from the mainland were one of the largest groups heading to Japan.
Tourists from other places
Where do these other tourists come from? JNTO figures show more tourists are coming from South Korea and Taiwan; In January alone, South Korean tourist arrivals rose 21.6%, surpassing mainland China as the largest source of overseas visitors.
Almost twice as many visitors came from Taiwan than from China in January, and the number of arrivals from Taiwan increased by 17%.
TOKYO, JAPAN – FEBRUARY 05: Tourists and shoppers walk in the Tsukiji shopping district in Tokyo, Japan, on February 5, 2026.
Tomohiro Ohsumi | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Zilmiyah Kamble, senior lecturer in hospitality and tourism management at James Cook University (JCU), said Japan’s appeal for people from nearby countries was due to its strong short-haul flight connections, weak yen and reputation as a close, culturally familiar and safe destination.
When asked about the drop in tourists from mainland China, Kamble said in an email to CNBC that the drop was “significant but not catastrophic.”
While Chinese tourists, who spend heavily on retail, accommodation and luxury goods, represent one of Japan’s most valuable inbound markets, Japan has historically had a diversified tourism portfolio that provides a level of resilience, Kamble said.
Different cities for different people
But unlike Chinese tourists, who are thought to be visiting tourist hotspots such as Kyoto, Osaka and Tokyo, the influx of tourists from other countries appears to be drawing travelers to other parts of Japan.
Prefectures such as Shizuoka, home to the iconic Mount Fuji, and Nara, famous for its temples and deer park, were more affected by the lack of Chinese tourists, according to a Feb. 27 report by analysts from Oxford Economics.
But places like Fukushima are popular with Taiwanese, while golf courses and hot springs in Ehime prefecture attract South Korean tourists, according to Oxford Economics.
Singaporean college student Cheryl Ng, who visited Hiroshima in February, told CNBC that there were many Western tourists in the city. “Two-thirds of the museum was Western,” he said, referring to the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum.
Oxford Economics echoed this view, noting that Americans, Australians and Europeans are interested in Hiroshima’s historical sites.
Hiroshima was hit by the first atomic bomb on August 6, 1945, as U.S. forces closed in on the Empire of Japan in the final days of World War II.
“Given the persistent weakness of the yen, we think overall tourist numbers are likely to remain strong, but an increase from current levels is unlikely given the shortage of accommodation,” Oxford Economics said.
David Mann, Mastercard’s chief economist for Asia-Pacific, agrees: “The overall picture remains positive,” he said in an email to CNBC.
Mann stated that arrivals to Japan were generally about 34% above pre-pandemic levels, and that tourism revenue increased even faster than the number of visitors, thanks to increased spending per visitor due to the weak yen.
The return of Chinese tourists?
The question then is: Will Chinese tourists return to Japan?
Analysts at Oxford Economics said tourist arrivals from China were “unlikely to recover anytime soon” in the near term and Japanese businesses were trying to capture demand from elsewhere.
Analysts said department stores in ASEAN economies have expanded promotional activities and retailers have increased stocks of products popular with Europeans, Americans and Southeast Asians rather than targeting Chinese tourists.
Mastercard’s Mann said it was difficult to put an exact timeline on the return of Chinese tourists, but any recovery would likely be gradual.
His sentiment was echoed by JCU’s Kamble, who noted that travel decisions are shaped not just by politics but also by consumer confidence, social media narratives and broader economic conditions.
Other factors such as airline connectivity, disposable income and diplomatic stability will also play a role, he said.
“Re-establishing trust takes time, especially in a connected digital information environment,” he said.
