Voting opens in Netherlands as polls suggest second Gert Wilders win | Netherlands
Voting is underway in the Dutch parliamentary elections and polls suggest anti-immigrant firebrand Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) could win again, but the party has little chance of being in the next government.
The PVV is currently in power, coming off a shock first place finish in the previous election and forming a four-party, all-conservative coalition that lasted almost a year before collapsing. narrowly ahead in the polls It is estimated that 24 to 28 MPs will return to the 150-seat parliament.
But the far-right party’s popularity has waned since 2023, when it won 37 seats, and all major parties have refused to enter government with Wilders, who repeatedly pulled the plug on the split coalition in June over his radical anti-refugee plans.
At the end of a campaign dominated by immigration, healthcare costs and the severe housing crisis in the Netherlands, the centre-left Green Left/Labor Party alliance (GL/PvdA) led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans came in second place, expected to win 22 to 26 seats.
Also expected to perform well are the liberal progressive D66, which is expected to increase its seat count almost fivefold to 21-25 seats, and the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA), which is expected to more than double its number of MPs to 18 to 22.
Outgoing cabinet members who have engaged in infighting and achieved little (PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmers-Citizens Movement (BBB) and centrist New Social Contract (NSC)) are expected to lose seats, some heavily.
According to the proportional Dutch system, 0.67% of the votes provides an MP. A maximum of 16 of the 27 parties that participated in the election, including the over 50, youth, animal, universal basic income and sports parties, were able to enter the parliament.
This high level of fragmentation means that no party can ever win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions (of four parties in the most recent three governments) for more than a century.
Wilders said “democracy would be dead” in the Netherlands if the PVV became the largest party outside the government, but opponents and experts say first place does not guarantee government and any coalition with a majority is democratic.
Although the outcome is difficult to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts say the next Dutch cabinet, following the most extreme government in recent history, will likely be a broad-based coalition led by the centre-left or moderate right.
Polling stations, including the model village of Madurodam in The Hague and Anne Frank’s house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30 GMT) and will close at 9pm, with a generally reliable exit poll expected shortly thereafter.
After the voting informative It tests possible coalitions that could have a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate a deal for the next four years and must pass a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.
