What China’s response to the U.S. attack on Iran says about its foreign policy
BEIJING (AP) — USA and Israel’s day attacked IranChina waited several hours before taking its first official position. Stating that they were “extremely concerned”, they called for an immediate halt to military operations and a resumption of dialogue.
The next day, Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the attacks as unacceptable and once again called for talks to resume.
There was no indication of direct intervention, but such an expectation would have been unrealistic. As in other recent conflicts, last year’s attack Regarding Iran, China has stayed on the sidelines and condemned the use of force, considering its long-term interests.
This time, his areas of interest include US President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated visit to Beijing, which is expected to take place in early April.
Why is China staying out of the war?
China’s military grew rapidly. realized military exercises Acting together with Iran, it established a base in Djibouti in East Africa in 2017. But its main focus is defending its interests in Asia, from Taiwan to the South China Sea.
Wherever he saw an opportunity, he turned to Middle East diplomacy and mediate rapprochement William Yang, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, said a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia was reached in 2023. However, analyst William Yang of the International Crisis Group said he sees the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as cautionary tales that should be avoided.
“China is reluctant to project its military power beyond its immediate surroundings and is also unwilling to play the role of security guarantor in unstable regions such as the Middle East,” he said.
Likewise, diplomatic and economic support for Russia and Venezuela, but stayed away from any military action in Ukraine or Latin America.
China’s position on the sidelines shows the limits of its influence on global geopolitics, said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research institute.
“Beijing’s response was predictably restrained, underscoring China’s limited ability to shape events when hard power is deployed,” he said. “Beijing may signal unrest, but it cannot meaningfully deter or influence U.S.-Israeli military action.”
Relations with the US outweigh those with Iran
China’s dissatisfaction with attacks on Iran is unlikely to end Relations with the USA Analysts say Trump plans to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing in about a month.
For Chinese leaders, relations with the United States are far more important than those with Iran on many fronts, from trade to the economy to Taiwan.
George Chen, a partner at The Asia Group, said Beijing may have a war of words with Washington over Iran, but the downside of creating a new conflict with Trump outweighs the upside.
“US-China relations are already too complex for Presidents Trump and Xi to handle,” he said. Adding Iran to the mix “is not going to be something that either side is willing to do.”
Still, he said it was possible Beijing could postpone Trump’s visit.
Energy concerns go beyond Iranian oil
China is the largest importer of oil from Iran, but the government is deeply concerned with energy security and is developing alternatives. Most worrying is the rise in prices and the potential loss of Middle East access to oil and gas.
China imported nearly 1.4 million barrels per day from Iran last year, or 13% of China’s total seaborne oil imports, according to data and analytics company Kpler. But the company estimates that enough oil is already on the way to last another four to five months. Muyu Xu, a senior analyst at Kpler, said this would give China’s independent refiners time to adjust and look for alternatives, with discounted Russian oil as the primary option.
China has spent years diversifying its supplies and increasing its reserves, Singleton said. “The loss of Iranian oil appears marginal, not significant, at least in the short term,” he said.
Iran’s closure efforts Strait of Hormuz The narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf is of greater concern, as are attacks on liquefied natural gas facilities in Gulf countries.
QatarEnergy, a major supplier stopped production liquefied natural gas following an attack on its facilities on Monday.
Why might China not help Iran arm itself?
Analysts say China is unlikely to send weapons to Iran to help it fight the United States for several reasons.
“Concrete military assistance, if any, will be limited to existing long-term defense trade arrangements rather than rapid battlefield support and will be constrained by Beijing’s interest in avoiding direct conflict with the United States and its allies,” said Muhammad Zulfiqar Rakhmat, a researcher at the Center for Economic and Legal Research in Indonesia.
China criticized the United States for supplying weapons to Ukraine and said this was prolonging the conflict.
Iran’s missile program relies on Chinese technology, said James M. Dorsey, a senior associate researcher at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. However, he predicted that China would act cautiously rather than sell any missiles to the country’s military.
“What China wants is for this to end,” he said.
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Associated Press writers Kanis Leung in Hong Kong, Didi Tang in Washington, E. Eduardo Castillo in Beijing and Simina Mistreanu in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed.
