What fuelled Bihar’s earthquake verdict for Modi and Nitish
According to The Times of India’s analysis, there are key political, social and organizational factors that shape Bihar’s broad mandate in the Nitish-Modi coalition;
Nitish-Modi Merger
Nitish Kumar’s governance record and Narendra Modi’s national appeal complemented each other, creating a perception of stability and service. Voters saw the partnership as a blend of Nitish’s improvements in roads, electricity and policing and Modi’s image of scale, speed and organizational strength. A nearly equal seat-sharing agreement and visible warmth among the leaders suggested that control was shared.
Recent central allocations and welfare schemes have strengthened the platform.
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NDA’s coalition government
The NDA’s strategy of building and governing a broad-based coalition bore fruit. Bringing in Chirag Paswan on generous terms expanded his social reach. Although the alliance could have performed well without Upendra Kushwaha or Jitan Ram Manjhi, it prioritized inclusivity over strict arithmetic. The BJP and JD(U) coordinated seamlessly, allotted seats clearly and campaigned with discipline. JD(U), under working president Sanjay Jha, emphasized winnability and worked closely with BJP’s Dharmendra Pradhan to ensure district-level alignment. Each partner added value by helping the NDA overcome local complexities.
Dark memories of ‘Jungle Raj’
The shadow of mismanagement associated with Lalu Prasad’s tenure remained a strong theme. Allegations of anarchy, corruption and single-caste domination from the RJD era were constantly leveled by the NDA. With Tejashwi Yadav projected as the CM face of the opposition, the NDA has made full use of the contrast between “Mangal Raj” and “Jungle Raj”. Statements by some RJD supporters about using “katta” or expectations of “Bhaiyaa Ki Satta” have reinforced these narratives.
Women voters and the advantage of non-disclosure agreements
To the goodwill generated through quotas for women, welfare benefits, free ration card, LPG connections and better law and order, recent programs such as Rs 10,000 benefit for Jeevika SHG members and old-age pension hike have been added. The women who allegedly suffered greatly during the Jungle Raj years seemed determined not to allow a return to those conditions. Warning songs of renewed fear resonated during the RJD government. Reporters frequently encountered women who not only supported the nondisclosure agreement but also influenced the vote within the household. Their high participation was decisive.
Capitalizing on MGB’s missteps
The NDA has kept its coalition of EBCs, Dalits and upper castes intact despite MGB and Prashant Kishor’s efforts to break it up. Welfare programs may have even driven some Muslim Yadav women towards the NDA. The aggressive behavior of some Yadav supporters and the MGB’s decision to field Shahabuddin’s son Osama were seen as strategic mistakes. These helped prevent the fragmentation of the NDA’s broad support.
Rapid adoption of NDA
The agility of the alliance was evident in the strengthening of Chhath Puja. Modi has been credited by the BJP with taking off the festival across the country. Thousands of special trains and Chhath songs at major stations helped create pride among Biharis. Rahul Gandhi’s criticism of Modi on this issue backfired and strengthened the NDA’s hand.
RJD’s limited outreach
The RJD retained its Muslim-Yadav base but this concentration limited its ability to appeal to other communities. EBCs were alienated by the Yadav-centric rhetoric and the party found it difficult to attract women outside its centre, losing some of its support. The outcome may encourage the BJP to more actively court the Yadavs, while strengthening the JD(U)’s belief that Muslims continue to view Nitish favorably.
Rahul Gandhi’s focus on ‘oy kori’
Rahul Gandhi’s emphasis on SIR and “vote choir” was not well accepted among voters, and their experiences did not reflect disenfranchisement. This approach mirrored its Rafale-centric campaign in 2019. His focus was eating up his valuable time and he forced Tejashwi to do the same. The rally crowd, largely from MY groups, proved misleading. His strained coordination with Tejashwi also affected the opposition’s cohesion.
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Tejashwi Yadav’s challenge
Tejashwi’s attempt to rid himself of the RJD’s past was hampered by his identity as Lalu’s heir and his involvement in corruption cases. The fans’ rhetoric kept the past alive in the memory of voters. Lalu’s limited sustained involvement in the field, unlike his grassroots style, has diminished his connectivity. His ambitious promises also failed to convince many voters.
The decline of forward and backward politics
The traditional distinction between upper caste and others lacked appeal. The upper castes adapted to the declining dominance and the NDA benefited from this as both Nitish and Modi were OBCs. The Congress’s attempt to revive this division failed to resonate. Nitish’s social justice references, caste research and acceptance of the BJP’s caste census have further weakened the MGB’s progress. The 2015 style mobilization did not happen.
A ‘bandhan’ that falls short
The opposition alliance lacked cohesion from the beginning. Congress’ hesitation to support Tejashwi as leader weakened the synergy. Although friendly competitions decreased, mistrust continued. Mukesh Sahni’s last-minute projection appeared opportunistic and enabled criticism from AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi. The RJD’s decision to offer 63 seats to the Congress was widely seen as a strategic miscalculation, given the party’s limited presence and inconsistent campaigns.
With inputs from ToI
