What if BNP wins Bangladesh polls – Will Tarique Rahman make ties cordial with India? | India News

With the elections to be held on February 12, Bangladesh will elect a government that can redefine not only its domestic politics but also its foreign ties, especially India. As the country undergoes a seismic shift with the return of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) heir Tarique Rahman from exile and the Awami League facing increasing pressure, an important question arises in New Delhi: Will relations with India improve or deteriorate if the BNP wins? And more importantly, whoever comes out on top, do India really have a comfortable option?

BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman stepped back into Bangladeshi soil on December 25, 2025, after living in self-imposed exile for 17 years in London in 2008, where he faced corruption and security cases. These legal convictions were overturned following mass political uprising in 2024, enabling his dramatic return amid tight security and large crowds in Dhaka. The return excited the political atmosphere.

Tarique, once a controversial power broker during the BNP’s last stint in office, is now portrayed by his party as a reformed leader who wants stable relations with neighbors, including India. Rahman, the son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, quickly positioned himself as the leader of the “new Bangladesh” and promised to restore law and order, protect minorities and boost economic growth. But history, ideology and current political alliances suggest that the road ahead may be far from smooth.

Meanwhile, the resurgence of Jamaat-e-Islami as a powerful force adds an unpredictable and potentially discordant chord to the electoral symphony.

But Indian officials have emphasized the need for free, fair and inclusive elections, framing Rahman’s return in a democratic context rather than as a direct diplomatic signal.

Current Context: A Relationship Under Tension

India’s ties with Bangladesh reached their strongest point under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League. Over the last fifteen years, this relationship has been marked by deep cooperation on security, connectivity, trade, power sharing and counterterrorism. Dhaka’s crackdown on anti-India rebel groups operating in Bangladeshi territory was a major turning point and won the goodwill of Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi.

But the political environment in Bangladesh is changing. Allegations of authoritarianism, economic pressures, rising inflation, youth unemployment and concerns about election reliability have given new impetus to the opposition. While the BNP, which boycotted the last election, is positioning itself as the main alternative, Islamist forces, including Jamaat-e-Islami, are trying to regain political relevance after years on the sidelines.

For India, uncertainty is troubling.

BNP’s history: A troubled past with India

India’s warning about a possible BNP return is based on experience. India-Bangladesh relations during BNP-led governments in the 1990s and early 2000s were marked by mistrust. While cross-border rebel groups targeting India’s northeast have sought refuge in Bangladesh, Dhaka has repeatedly denied their existence.

The period between 2001 and 2006, when the BNP followed in the footsteps of Jamaat-e-Islami, was particularly sensitive. Many senior Indian rebel leaders were reportedly present in Bangladesh during this time. The infamous Chittagong arms haul in 2004, one of South Asia’s largest illegal arms seizures, further deepened India’s concerns; as investigations later suggested links to militant networks operating against India.

Tarique Rahman, then a powerful figure in the BNP government, was accused of wielding influence behind the scenes. He was later convicted in multiple corruption cases and sentenced to imprisonment in absentia, leading to his exile.

Although BNP leaders now claim that the party has evolved, New Delhi has not forgotten this episode.

Tarique Rahman’s New Message: Assurance or Rebranding?

After returning from exile, the one-time political heavyweight leader Rahman, along with his party leaders, made a conscious effort to soften their stance towards India.

Public statements emphasize sovereignty, mutual respect and balanced diplomacy rather than conflict. BNP insiders claim that the party understands Bangladesh’s economic and security dependence on regional stability and does not want to antagonize India.

There is also recognition within the BNP that India is now not just a neighbour, but also Bangladesh’s largest regional trading partner and a critical player in connectivity projects connecting South Asia to Southeast Asia.

But skepticism remains. The BNP’s core support base includes nationalist and conservative elements who are deeply suspicious of India. Any BNP government will face domestic pressure to distance itself from New Delhi, especially on issues such as river water sharing, border management and trade asymmetry.

The Congregation Factor: The Real Complication

The most worrying scenario for India is not just a BNP victory but the BNP government’s dependence on Islamist allies. Despite its declining electoral strength, Jamaat-e-Islami maintains its strong organizational capacity and street power. Its ideological hostility towards India is well documented, shaped by historical grievances dating back to 1971.

If the community plays a decisive role or gains influence within a coalition, India may once again face a Bangladesh that is less cooperative and more open to hardline narratives on counterterrorism. Even if Tarique Rahman personally seeks balanced relations, accommodating Islamist partners would limit his room for maneuver.

This is where India’s dilemma deepens.

Strategic Changes: China, the West and Regional Competition

Any new government in Dhaka, BNP or otherwise, will also operate in a much more complex global environment. China has expanded its footprint in Bangladesh through infrastructure investments, defense cooperation and loans. While Sheikh Hasina balances ties with Beijing without alienating India, the BNP-led government may lean more on China as a balancer.

At the same time, Western pressure on Bangladesh regarding democracy and human rights has also increased. The BNP gained support among Western capitals by portraying itself as a democratic alternative. This could change Dhaka’s diplomatic tone, but it could also encourage policies that sideline India’s sensitivities.

Economic and Security Risks for India

India’s interests in Bangladesh go beyond politics. Bangladesh is an important partner in India’s Act East policy and is critical for access and regional connectivity to the northeast. According to various reports, trade between the two countries exceeds $15 billion annually; energy cooperation, rail connections and port access form the backbone of this interaction.

Whether Bangladesh sees a BNP victory under Tarique Rahman or a scenario where Jamaat gains influence, India faces a difficult prospect.

A BNP victory under Tarique Rahman might offer a better, more predictable basis for cooperation than the rise of Islamist forces, but it would not automatically repair strained relations. India will still need to deal with historical insecurity, Rohingya and border issues, and domestic challenges affecting foreign policy in Bangladesh.

If Jamaat or a hardline alliance triumphs, India’s strategic environment will become more volatile, pushing Dhaka towards hostile attitudes and partnerships that could complicate security cooperation and regional stability.