What Iran’s next move could be

Iran responded angrily to US air strikes in three nuclear areas and promised to say “endless results.”

However, beyond the words, there will be fiery discussions at the highest level of security and intelligence organizations of Iran.

Should we climb the conflict through retaliation against US interests, or we should negotiate as US President Donald Trump calls them to do them, which means to give up all the nuclear enrichment in Iran in practice?

This internal discussion will take place at a time when many senior Iranian commanders will look at their shoulders, and Israel will wonder if a sensitive air strike is the next target, or whether someone in the room betrayed them to the overseas spy agency Mossad.

In general, there are currently three different strategic action courses that are open to Iran. None of them is at the top in the minds of those who are risky and decisions, but the survival of the regime of the Islamic Republic.

Many of them will be the bay for blood. Iran was first humiliated by Israel with what he often calls ‘great devil’ in the past.

Iran’s exchange of fire with Israel continues its tenth day, but retaliation to the United States brings a brand new risk level not only for Iran, but for the whole region.

It is believed that Iran’s original stock protects about half of about 3,000 missile stocks, using the rest in the change of fire with Israel and lost.

Iran has a target list of about 20 US bases in the wider Middle East.

One of the closest and most obvious ones is the expanding center of the US Navy’s fifth fleet in Mina Salman in Bahrain. However, Iran may be reluctant to strike a neighboring Gulf Arab state. Perhaps it would be to use its deputies in Iraq and Syria to attack any of the relatively isolated US bases in AT-TANF, AIN-ASAD or Erbil. Iran has a form here.

When Trump ordered the assassination of Iran’s Quds force leader Qassim Süzani in 2020, Iran responded by targeting US military personnel in Iraq, but he refrained from killing in advance. This time he may not do that.

Iran can initiate ‘herd attacks’ using drones and fast torpedo boats on US navy warships, which is something that the Navy of the Revolutionary Guards Corps has been extensively implemented for years.

If the aim descends to this route, it will be overwhelmed by US marine defenses with pure numbers. He may also ask his allies in Yemen in Houthis to continue their attacks on the Western transport between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.

There are also economic goals that Iran could strike, but this would recently antagonize the Gulf Arab neighbors, who recently reached an restless modus Vivendi.

The biggest and most harmful target here will be drowning from the vital throat of Hormuz, where more than 20 percent of the world’s oil materials pass. Iran could do this by cultivating sea mines by creating a fatal danger for both sea and commercial transport.

Then there is cyber. Together with Iran, North Korea, Russia and China, it has a sophisticated aggressive cyber capability. Adding destructive malware to US networks or businesses is undoubtedly an option.

This means waiting until US bases no longer have a maximum alarm, decreasing the current tension and starting a surprise attack at a time when Iran has chosen.

Such an attack can also target the US diplomatic, consulate or trade duties or extend the assassination of individuals. The risk for Iran is, of course, the fact that ordinary Iranians call for renewed US attacks, as they have returned to normal life.

This would take a great restriction of Iran, but it would save it from the US attacks. He may even choose the diplomatic route and re -participate in negotiations with the US, but Iran’s Foreign Minister has never left these negotiations, and in his words, Israel and the United States fly them into the air.

However, Muscat would be worth it to start the US-Iran negotiations in Rome or wherever it is, but if Iran is ready to accept the red line that both the US and Israel insisted. In order to maintain Iran’s civilian nuclear program, it must send the entire Uranium to enrich it out of the country.

Not to do anything after such a stroke, especially if the US attacks, especially after the terrible echoes warnings, the Iranian regime weak. In the end, the risk of weakening its grip in its population may decide to overweight the US attack.