What it means for the Fed

00:00 Speaker A

We have received some numbers about consumer confidence from the University of Michigan. This was the preliminary figures of July. Therefore, in July, the first gaze and economists were a little stronger than June than June. 61.8 was reading here. Seeing and seeing expectations for inflation, a little lower than those consumer feelings, what are you doing? Also, of course, we made retail sales this week. So what does this picture look like?

00:53 Brian

Certainly. Therefore, if you think about the June data for industrial production and retail sales, it is stronger than expected, but some have only turned back. Now, sensitivity data, I think it’s really important, especially the component of inflation expectations, because I think one of the things that Powell hangs his hat in terms of justifying a pause, that inflation expectations are up to, they are high and they want to fight against it. And if they are now dragging lower, the argument of the Fed, which is really in the pause, goes to the side and perhaps enter a more neutral stance instead of a restrictive stance. And it can be understood why emotions will heal, because we really realized that we were a little agreement with the tariff speech, that it would play. Perhaps it won’t be as bad as it is presented at the Rose Garden on April 2. If we settle between 10 and 15 %, it’s not great, but it can be worse.

02:37 Speaker A

So when Brian is looking at these various elements, what is the biggest risk for the market right now?

02:51 Brian

Yes, I think the biggest risk values right now. When we look at the foundations, imagine that these will develop, but how much do you pay for these foundations? Therefore, as I pass through the winning season, I hope we will see a lot of volatility in terms of companies that meet expectations, probably good, but longing will probably be punished much more than usual. I don’t think investors really have a patience with companies that are missing with any of these estimates.

03:49 Speaker A

Um, really interesting. It is nice to watch if companies are missing and what will happen then. Brian, it’s nice to see you. Thanks a lot.

04:02 Brian

Thank you.