What to expect Sunday night on the government shutdown

The Senate is moving toward a test vote tonight to break the filibuster on the GOP’s new spending plan. This test vote should not be taken lightly. If the Senate breaks the filibuster in tonight’s test vote, it’s likely that the government shutdown will be just days away from ending.

Here’s what we expect:

The Senate will hold a test vote between 8pm and 10pm EST to break the filibuster on the revised GOP spending package. The renewed bill reopens the government until at least January 30. This gives lawmakers time to work on individual spending bills. But the package includes all spending bills for the Department of Agriculture, veterans and military construction programs, and Congress through next fall.

It’s about math. Sixty years needed to break the filibuster Republicans believe they can at least get a group of Democrats on their side to break the filibuster.

THE SENATE COULD TAKE A TEST VOTE ON NEW SPENDING BILL AS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON

FOX was told to keep an eye on the following senators caucusing with Democrats: Sens. Tim Kaine, D-Va., Mark Warner, D-Va., Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., John Fetterman, D-Pa., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., Angus King, I-Maine, and Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. Also watch out for Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., who has expressed interest in opening the government.

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to How We Are Facing a Possible Break of the Government Lockdown

It’s also unclear whether Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., will vote yes. Paul had previously voted to block the GOP’s previous funding plan. A potential yes or no vote from Paul could determine how many Democrats are needed to break the filibuster. After all, it’s about math.

Voting to break the filibuster does not mean that these senators will ultimately vote for the underlying bill. But Republicans will be able to carry the burden themselves with a simple majority and won’t need Democrats for final passage.

What happens if the Senate gets 60 yes? According to the book, it will take until NEXT weekend for a final vote on the bill. But that probably won’t happen.

There are two schools of thought:

One school says Democrats are upset with each other and just want to get out of the Capitol. Therefore, it is possible that they will reach a time agreement and vote on the final passage of the bill overnight tonight or perhaps during the daytime on Monday.

The U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC, on Monday, November 11, 2024. (Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The other school says Democrats are so angry about health care delivery that they want the Senate to spend significant time in the next few days and pass the bill by midweek.

Some Democrats are angry that their colleagues were able to help the GOP and reopen the government without a solid agreement to extend Obamacare subsidies as they expire. This divide will lead to a Democratic civil war. House Democrats were furious with Senate Democrats who helped prevent a GOP shutdown in March. This battle will only intensify between those who support tonight’s test vote and those who are on board with Obamacare.

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Moreover, it’s entirely possible that Democrats will block government funding for 40 days and throw their own party under the bus before a solution to the Obamacare issue can be found.

But Democrats pushing for Obamacare relief may have lost the battle, but they can still win the war. They have successfully put the issue of health care affordability on their radar and can force Republicans and President Trump to address the issue. If they don’t, Democrats may be tackling a crucial issue ahead of next year’s midterm elections.

Here’s another factor:

Some rank-and-file Democrats are outraged at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, DY. Liberals were outraged at Schumer for siding with the GOP in the spring. Now some think Schumer overcorrected and went too far this time. This may have consequences for future leadership elections.

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So what has changed for some Democrats?

The pressure of the lockdown was starting to mount. It was a toxic combination of aviation delays (with the holidays looming), air traffic controllers quitting their jobs, federal employees missing paychecks, SNAP benefits not being distributed, Capitol Police officers and Congressional aides working without pay… you name it. Also some Democrats scored spending priorities that are important to them In the appropriation invoices attached to the package. That’s what makes this measure different from the one Democrats have blocked since late September. Additionally, the new Jan. 30 funding deadline gives lawmakers a chance to finalize other spending bills and build their big demands into those bills. So it was a combination of things that changed the equation.