Why Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil hub is still untouched by US-Israel bombers | US-Israel war on Iran

Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports pass, is arguably the country’s most sensitive economic target, but its export terminal has so far remained untouched throughout the US-Israeli bombing campaign.

Experts say the bombing or capture of the field by US forces could cause a sustained increase in already high oil prices, as it would mean shutting down all of Iran’s daily crude oil exports.

“We could see the $120 a barrel price we saw on Monday move towards $150 if Kharg is attacked,” said Neil Quilliam of the Chatham House think tank. “It is very vital for global energy markets.”

Although the US has hit 5,000 targets in and around Iran, it has so far refrained from bombing the country’s oil infrastructure; but oil prices remain high at around $20 per barrel as fear of Iranian retaliation has closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic.

Israeli air forces struck two oil refineries and two warehouses on Saturday, plunging Tehran into what some residents described as “apocalyptic” darkness and thick black smoke descending on the capital. However, there have been no attacks since then.

Kharg, a five-mile-long coral island in the Persian Gulf 27 miles from the mainland, is where pipelines from Iran’s oil fields in the center and west of the country terminate. Founded by US oil conglomerate Amoco, the company was seized by Iran during the 1979 revolution.

While much of Iran’s coastline is silty and too shallow for the very large crude tankers used by the oil industry, Kharg is close enough to deep water. Satellite images reveal large loading docks jutting out from the east coast.

Between 1.3 and 1.6 million barrels of oil typically pass through Kharg per day, although Iran increased volumes to 3 million barrels per day in mid-February in anticipation of a US-led attack, according to investment bank JP Morgan. The bank added that another 18 million barrels are stored at Kharg as a reserve.

Media reports have hinted at White House interest, including a brief reference in an Axios report on Saturday that officials were considering “taking on Kharg.” US defense secretary Pete Hegseth does not rule out attacking Iran with ground forces, even though there are not many US soldiers in the region.

Michael Rubin, a senior Pentagon advisor on Iran and Iraq in the George W Bush administration. he said last week He had discussed the idea with White House officials and argued that it could be a way to economically cripple the Iranian regime. “If they can’t sell their own oil, they can’t make payroll,” he said.

Before the latest US-Israeli attack, most of the crude oil Iran extracted from Kharg was exported to China. But the interconnected nature of the market means that a permanent loss of export supply would impact global prices, with a further 3.5 million barrels per day offline, mostly from Iraq, due to the closure of Hormuz.

Lynette Nusbacher, a former British army intelligence officer, argues that destroying Kharg or damaging its export field “risks causing a rise in oil prices that will shape the economy that will not fall rapidly.” Israel did not attack it during last summer’s 12-day war, and its complex infrastructure could take years to repair.

There is also a longer-term political debate. “Kharg Island is so important to the Iranian economy that destroying its facilities would eliminate any claim to waging war to create a brighter future for Iran,” Nusbacher said, as it would deprive a successor regime of vital oil revenue.

The effort to capture the island would require a massive, sustained operation larger than a typical special forces offensive, given its size. Although a U.S. takeover would in theory give the White House influence over Tehran, Quilliam argued that such an effort was very likely to be self-defeating.

“If the US seizes it, then you have separated the Iranian oil industry. Iran produces but can’t export, and the US can’t produce. That would put the markets in a complete stalemate; it’s a real impasse,” the analyst said.