Why the chocolate in your holiday candy could be ‘fake’ this year
Planet A Foods’ ChoViva chocolate alternative
Planet A Foods
If you’re opening a box of chocolate this holiday season, it may not contain real cocoa.
Market turmoil, ethical concerns and sustainability questions have sparked a movement among some chocolate makers to scrap cocoa and turn to alternative ingredients; This has led to calls that the real deal could soon become a “luxury” for consumers.
market confusion
Poor farming conditions in Ghana and Ivory Coast, the world’s leading cocoa producers, have damaged crop yields in recent years, causing cocoa prices to fall. on a rollercoaster ride. After surpassing its all-time high of $12,000 towards the end of last year, cocoa futures It is down more than 50% through 2025 amid tentative signs that the crop will recover.
Cocoa futures
Price fluctuations made businesses in the industry nervous and eventually spilled over into consumer goods; Data from Circana and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed chocolate prices rose 30% in the year through October.
In the third quarter earnings report, Mondelez International The maker of Cadbury, Milka and Toblerone has flagged the “volatility of cocoa” and its “ability to hedge effectively” against associated cost pressures as potential issues that could prevent the company from meeting its financial targets.
As producers grapple with this unpredictability, some choose to reduce their exposure to the cocoa market by changing their ingredient mixes.
Earlier this year, changes to the composition of McVitie’s Club and Penguin confectionery made a splash in the UK, with reports that the products could no longer be called chocolate. both products must now be labeled “chocolate flavored” After parent company Pladis reduced cocoa content in an effort to cut costs.
‘Real’ chocolate is becoming a luxury
Pladis declined to comment on whether the changes had affected sales when contacted by CNBC.
But the move away from cocoa is gaining traction among international confectioners, so much so that it may become the norm to see “fake” chocolate used in more budget-friendly products, according to Massimo Sabatini, co-founder and CEO of Italian startup Foreverland. Foreverland uses carob, pumpkin seeds and chickpeas to produce a chocolate-like product that is sold to companies that produce confectionery, baked goods and ice cream.
“There are many products in the chocolate field: [bars] He told CNBC that cocoa is actually moving into products where it is a participant rather than a protagonist, citing products like cookies, chocolate-flavored cereal and chocolate-covered snacks. “I believe alternative chocolate will replace this huge market. [pure chocolate bars] “It will increasingly become a luxury product.”
Sabatini pointed out: The latest chocolate trend in Dubai exemplifies this point, with some of these chocolates selling for up to 80 euros ($93.09) per kilogram.
“[The chocolate market] “It’s already going in that direction,” he defended.
Aside from pricing pressure, Foreverland and other alternative producers are touting their products as solutions to long-standing concerns about sustainability and ethical sourcing in the cocoa industry.
“If you compare this alternative to other alternatives on the market, like the plant-based burger, chocolate is used in so many different applications, whereas a burger is a burger,” Sabatini said.
“Chocolate can be a snack, it can be a bar, it can be a biscuit, it can be anything. There are hundreds of different products where chocolate is not the main character, where alternative chocolate could really be a solution, to bring more sustainable products to the market, but also to reduce the pressure on the cocoa supply chain.”
New York-based ICAP commodity broker Drew Geraghty told CNBC that pure chocolate may continue to dominate higher prices for some time, although there are signs of a recovery in prices in the futures market.
Large cocoa users often lock in prices well in advance and typically cover eight to ten months of production, giving them more control over price risk, but smaller producers don’t have that flexibility, so they typically only hedge three to six months, Geraghty said.
Futures are contracts in which the buyer of the contract agrees to buy something (in this case, cocoa) at a specific price on a specific date. Cocoa futures for March delivery were last traded at $5,897 per ton in New York.
Geraghty noted that producers who purchased futures eight months ago are purchasing the higher prices seen in late 2024 and early 2025.
“If you look back to when prices were really rising rapidly in 2023 and 2024 and early ’25, the price on the shelf didn’t react as quickly because end users were still moving through lower-priced futures warrants — what they were buying in the futures market six to eight months ago was going to determine pricing,” he explained.
“Cheaper prices today, with the market down, say, 50% since the beginning of the year, that will translate into cheaper prices on the retail side in six to eight months.”
Jessica Karch, marketing manager of Planet A Foods, a German company that produces a chocolate alternative derived from sunflower seeds, agrees that cocoa alternatives will become increasingly common in the future.
“We believe the problems we are currently seeing in the cocoa supply chain will not go away,” he said. “So prices may stabilize up to a certain point, but they will not return to their previous state. [cheap] It was in the past.”
Planet A Foods’ ChoViva chocolate alternative
Planet A Foods
Karch noted that Planet A is already seeing demand increase and the variety of alternatives coming to market is increasing.
“We love chocolate, we don’t want to replace chocolate, but we also see a growing gap,” he added. “Because on the one hand, there are problems in the supply chain, but on the other hand, demand is increasing, especially in countries like China and India, and so we see a gap and we want to help fill that gap.”
Market drives ‘PTSD’ alternative market
Both Karch and Sabatini told CNBC that demand for their products is increasing. And they are not alone in the market; A number of startups, including Nukoko in the UK and Voyage Foods in America, are offering what old-timers call “cocoa-free chocolate.”
Natasha Linhart, CEO of FMCG wholesaler Atlante, told CNBC that chocolate alternatives will likely become more prevalent “in certain niches and hybrid applications.”
“Cocoa-free or fermentation-based masses are increasingly used in coatings, fillings and baking to replace some of the cocoa content,” he said. “Many manufacturers are already diluting cocoa by shifting their mixes to ‘filled’ products. Brands such as Milka, for example, have expanded their range where a significant portion of the bar is filled with yoghurt cream or rice crispies, reducing the intensity of cocoa while maintaining the perception of indulgence and value.”
Linhart said he expects to see more products where traditional cocoa is complemented by fillings to manage cost and supply risk.
“However, for mainstream chocolate tablets, cocoa will continue to be the backbone of the category due to taste expectations and the emotional weight given to ‘real chocolate’,” he said.
ICAP’s Geraghty said cocoa alternatives will increasingly be used wherever producers can get away with it, due to “market PTSD”.
“At one point, cocoa butter was three times the price of cocoa futures, so cocoa futures were at $9,000, $10,000 a tonne, and cocoa butter was $27,000 to $30,000 a tonne — very expensive,” he said.
“For this reason [manufacturers] scramble – you make a smaller bar size, find substitutes where possible. Even though prices have halved [they’ll be thinking] Why waste it when you can replace it with shea butter or some chocolate?”
