Why the Daily Mail is wrong on net migration in 2024-25

Despite sensational claims, a close analysis of visa trends, movement data and ABS forecasts shows that net migration is significantly lower than reported in 2024-25 years.

. Daily mailVarious anti-immigrants defenders and ordinary politicians hyperventize that net migration will be around 457,000 in 2024-25, because this is a clear and long-term (NPLT) result for this financial year. This cannot be considered that NPLT should be considered with the extensive evidence that net migration is very wide (see graph 1) and other supportive evidence since Covid.

Australian Statistical Office (PessimisticTo date, it has published net migration forecasts for the first six months of 2024-25. This shows that net migration is 154,800 and NPLT 178,100 for these six months.

(Data Source: Pessimistic)

Assuming that there is no major change in the net migration forecast on the ABS estimation in the first six months of 2024-25, net migration in the second six months will have to be more than 300,000 Daily mailNet immigration notification in 2024-25. For six months, NPLT was 279,460. Net migration in the second six months of 2024-25, even if the same as the NPLT for six months, would not be 20,000 short. Daily mailHe declared a net migration level for 2024-25.

In 2024-25, we need to check the other three data sets to check how close NPLT could be for net migration in 2024-25 years.

These:

General net movements for 2024-25 (short-term and long-term combined);

Changes in the stock of temporary participants in 2024-25 and permanent migration; And

The trends in the visa give grants for key visa types in 2024-25 years.

General Net Movements in 2024-25

Considering a short period of time, the general net movements (short -term and long -term) are dominated by short -term movements in which people usually go to Australia for two to 12 weeks and return to Australia. However, the effect of short -term movements for more than 12 months is washed to a great extent and maintains long -term and lasting movements.

Although the total net movements are also an inappropriate indicator of net migration, they fell in 2023-24 449,880 (very close to the net migration in that year, and only marginalized marginalized) in 2024-25 (much less than NPLT at 2024-25). This result creates significant doubts that the 2024-25 NPLT figure is a good indicator of net migration that year.

The big surprise in the total net movement figure in 2024-25 increased compared to 2023-24 in the net arrival of Australian citizens. Probably, a large number of immigrants or less Australian and less abandoned the country in the long run is the effect of rising short -term movements of citizens of Australian citizens. However, it may be possible for Australia to return to the relatively powerful labor market in the 2024-25 years.

Considering the increase in the net arrival of New Zealand Citizen in 2024-25, the relatively powerful labor market of Australia, the record number of NZ citizens who left the NZ was expected to provide a direct way to Australian citizenship.

Change in the stock of temporary participants

The amendment of the share of temporary participants in Australia to June 2025 from June 2024 to June 2025 is an indication of the net migration contribution of the temporary participants to the net migration in 2024-25.

The stock of temporary participants in Australia grew by 94,364 in 2024-25. The addition of 185,000 permanent migration program and 20,000 humanitarian programs (and ignoring the separation of permanent immigrants) gives around 300,000 net migration in 2024-25.

For this figure, we must add the number of temporary participants who left Australia in May/June 2025 and returned in July/August 2023. Although this figure is large enough to receive net migration above 335,000 treasury estimates, it will not be large enough to reach nearly 400,000 places, Daily mail The claim of net migration in 2024-25 at 457,000.

Key visa grant data in 2024-25

Lock temporary entry drivers of net migration are students, working holidaymakers, talented temporary participants and temporary graduates.

Students

Offshore Student visa grants fell less than 2022-23 to 2023-24 and 2024-25. On land grants decreased significantly after the summit in 2022-23, but increased again at 2024-25. This shows that students may not be able to leave at the rate that the treasury expects. As NPLT data suggests, it indicates that the student’s contribution to the net migration in 2024-25 is rather than stabilizing rather than stabilizing.

Working Holiday Visas

First issue Working holiday machine And Work and holiday Visas climbed at 85,716 in 2021-22; 2022-23’te 198,010; 184,616 in 2023-24; and 196,463 in 2024-25. Remember that the first employee holiday manufacturer applications are now automatically obtained a three -year working holiday manufacturer visa, and therefore, therefore is more likely to be counted in net migration.

In addition, the number of people who receive the second and third employee holiday producer visas also keeps the net migration contribution to the net migration, because the visa holder should remain in Australia for 12 years from the age of 16 and only for the first employee holiday producer visa should not be counted in net migration.

The second working holiday producer and the number of business and holiday visas rose from 3,401 to 2024-25 in 2021-22 to 90,754. The number of third working holiday producer and business and holiday visas increased from 8,242 to 2024-25 in 2021-22 to 33,898. These are the second and third and third working holidaymakers who will apply for more black visas such as talented temporary visas and permanent visas that will be counted in net migration.

This will indicate that the net migration work holiday contribution to the net migration in 2024-25, but perhaps not significantly larger than 2023-24.

Talented temporary visas

Since the opening of international borders, talented temporary visa grants in the open sea have remained relatively stable over 60,000 per year. This is far above the pandemic levels and regulates both a strong labor market and a policy that regulates a post -pandemic policy.

Temporary visa grants qualified to the shore were also a powerful pandemic with a visa grant of 29,164 in 2021-22; 35,106 in 2022-23; and 39,730 in 2023-24. However, 2024-25, 70.218 was a prominent year with a black-talented visa grant. In addition to an increase in temporary graduates, it is likely to reflect employee holidaymakers who secure the temporary visas that will press the employer -backed permanent category.

Talented temporary visas will make a strong contribution to the net migration in 2024-25, especially by slowing down the proportion of net migration attempts.

Temporary Graduates

The stock of temporary graduates in Australia, students completing the courses, increased rapidly towards the end of 2023. Temporary graduate scene.

Although the temporary graduate visa grant numbers have fallen back compared to 2022-23, they are currently above capable of temporary visas or permanent visas (temporary graduates can no longer return to a student visa), although they have a significant number of temporary graduates.

Applications for temporary graduate visas have been far above 100,000 pandemic levels per year since 2021-22. They made more than 145,000 peaks in 2023-24. In 2024-25, more than 100,000 temporary graduate applications were made. The stock of temporary graduates is close to 230,000 record levels.

Temporary graduates also continue to slow down the rate of departure and therefore continue to slow down the rate of decrease in net migration.

Solution

In September 2025, ABS will publish the 2025 net migration estimation in September 2025 and the first net migration forecast for the June 2025 quarter in December 2025. It will also review the net migration forecast in the first six months of 2024-25.

Before that, we can be sure of supportive evidence that net migration is not near 457,000 in 2024-25. Daily mail. Although net migration in 2024-25 is over 335,000 treasury estimates, supportive evidence shows that this will be far below 400,000. This still means that the government has a lot to do to migrate to the pre -pandemic level promised by the Prime Minister (about 230,000), but not almost as much as it Daily mail recommends.

Migration to 160,000 promised by the coalition will be even more difficult than a great deterioration in the labor market and a very important and politically controversial policy – none of the coalition does nothing but limit students while opposing the power to grab students.

DR ABUL Rizvi An independent Australian columnist And a former deputy secretary of the Ministry of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @Rizviabul.

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