Why the fall of this Labour political fortress could spell disaster for Starmer
IIt has been 731 years since the Welsh constituency of Caerphilly witnessed a siege by rebels trying to seize power from the established rulers.
In 1294 Madog ap Llewellyn attacked the great 13th-century castle in the middle of Caerphilly in an attempt to put an end to Edward I’s previously unchallenged authority.
Where Madog failed, Nigel Farage’s Reformation now stands to succeed. The rebel siege in 2025 appears to mark the dramatic collapse of Labour’s previously unshakeable grip on Wales; Plaid Cymru is also expected to be a serious challenger to the incumbent party.
Caerphilly has been a Labor constituency since 1918, when it was won by local Methodist preacher Alfred Onions. The party has held the seat in every election since, despite the collapse of much of the red wall in 2019.
For a brief period in the 1980s, he was assisted by a Social Democratic Party (SDP) MP in the seat following the departure of Labor representative Ednyfed Hudson Davies. However, at the next election in 1983 he lost his seat to future Welsh Labor Party Secretary Ron Davies.
Caerphilly’s stronghold represents Labour’s unassailable hold not just in the town but across Wales, which it has ruled for an uninterrupted period since devolution in 1999.
But now, following the death of Welsh Labor Senedd member Hefin David, the seat looks set to fall to 21st century rebels from Reform and even Plaid Cymru.
The expected outcome is unthinkable for First Minister Baroness Eluned Morgan and will shake the confidence of the Welsh Labor leadership, as well as send shockwaves through Sir Keir Starmer and his inner circle in Downing Street.
This week’s by-election is a rehearsal for a much bigger election in May 2026, when the entire Senedd is up for election under a new proportional voting system.
Wales is set to attract more attention in a UK-wide election than it has ever seen in its history; This is likely to attract more attention than ever before in its history, especially because the fight for the top spot is being waged not by the ruling party in Wales (Labour) but by two groups of nationalists (Reform UK and Welsh separatists Plaid Cymru).
Today’s Beaufort poll puts Reform seven points ahead on 30 per cent, Labor a narrow second on 23 per cent and Plaid behind on 22 per cent.
But the Survation poll in Wales looked bad for Labour; Reform was in a distant third with 42 per cent, Plaid with 38 per cent and Labor with 12 per cent.
Labor may come in a distant third, and their only serious hope of retaining any power in a territory they have ruled unchallenged for more than a quarter of a century is to be Plaid’s junior partner in a coalition that excludes Reform.
The harsh reality is that if Wales falls to Reform, there is a good chance that discontent among Labor MPs at Westminster will be so great that an actual attempt will be made to oust Sir Keir.
But this has been coming for a while. The majority of people in Wales supported Brexit in the 2016 EU referendum. This was a sign of things to come.
In the 2019 European Parliament elections, the Brexit Party led by Farage took two out of four seats in Wales.
Now, as Reform tops the polls, they are eating into Labor votes in traditional centres.
The Welsh Labor leadership was so concerned that they sent the entire Welsh government to campaign in the council by-election earlier this year to prevent Reform winning its first seat in the Principality. They failed.
So why is Labour’s grip on power in Wales collapsing?
There are a number of reasons, many of which focus on Starmer’s hopeless unpopularity, his attempts to cut welfare and pensioners’ winter fuel payments, and the sense of crisis in his government.
But the Welsh Labor government is not blameless. Anger over the 20mph speed limit, road building bans, tourist tax, poor NHS results and the worst school standards in the UK have not endeared them to Welsh voters. At the local level, the closure of libraries by the Labour-run council did not help.
“When you promise change, people expect the new money to be spent and get disappointed when it doesn’t happen,” said a local Labor insider.
But the biggest danger for Labor on Thursday and next May is complacency. Voters seem to have stopped caring, which means the smaller, more motivated group has a much bigger impact.
In years past Labor would have held back its votes, but now there are people excited about Mr Farage and his promises on immigration control and nodding to the left on nationalizing steel.
Even the conviction of former Welsh Reform leader Nathan Gill for accepting Russian bribes does not appear to have halted the party’s rise.
If Llŷr Powell wins, she will be the first person elected to the Senedd for Reform, where she will join former Tory Laura Anne Jones, who defected earlier this year. They will certainly have many more colleagues in May next year and Caerphilly could be the first brick laid in another crumbling Labor bastion.
