Why the Maduro prosecution could drag on for years

Deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro stood in a Manhattan courthouse on Monday as a captive defendant: surrounded by heavy security, stripped of his authority as head of state and facing drug, weapons and conspiracy charges that will likely keep him behind bars for years.

“I’m caught,” he said in Spanish before pleading not guilty during a brief hearing. “I am an honest man, the president of my country.”

Just two days earlier, more than 2,000 miles away in Caracas, Maduro sat “atop a corrupt, illegitimate government that has used government power for decades to protect and promote illegal activities, including drug trafficking,” according to the sweeping indictment unsealed Saturday.

What preceded Maduro’s rapid fall was not only his capture over the weekend in what President Trump described as “one of the most stunning, effective and powerful displays of American military power in U.S. history,” but also his decades-long partnership with “narco-terrorists” in Venezuela, Colombia and Mexico to enrich himself and his family through “large-scale” cocaine trafficking, the indictment alleged.

The allegations, stemming from a 2020 indictment, date back a quarter-century and implicate Maduro’s wife and son, as well as other Venezuelan leaders. They suggest extensive coordination with notorious drug trafficking organizations and cartels in the region and portray a world that Trump has long tried to implant in the minds of Americans; The country’s southern neighbors are deliberately flooding the United States with deadly drugs and violent criminals to destroy local communities.

The portrait of drugs, money and violence is as dramatic as the overnight raid that sent jets and helicopters into Venezuelan airspace, sent U.S. special forces to Maduro’s bedroom, detained Maduro and his wife in the U.S. and eventually brought them to trial on Monday.

It appears to be based on secret intelligence and other witness testimony collected over decades; Maduro’s defense team will undoubtedly seek to discredit the cast of characters on whom prosecutors relied (some of the drug traffickers themselves) by challenging them.

Legal experts said the case could take years to reach trial, not only because of the normal nuance of bringing a multi-defendant conspiracy case but also because of the added complexity of an investigation that is almost certainly based in part on secret intelligence.

“This is very different from a typical drug case, even a very high-profile drug case. [where] “When you’re actually prosecuting a head of state or a former head of state, you’re not going to classify the way you would get State Department cables,” said Renato Stabile, an attorney for former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández, who was convicted in a similar cocaine trafficking case in 2024 and pardoned by Trump last month.

Joe McNally, the former U.S. attorney for the Central District of California, which includes Los Angeles, said he expects it will take at least a year for the case to go to trial after prosecutors “show their cards” and Maduro’s lawyers review that evidence and find their own witnesses.

He said he expects a strong case from prosecutors that will play out fully in the public eye, “even though it is not easy to prove a case that involves a high level of cartel activity taking place thousands of miles away.”

“He will have his day in court. This is not a court-martial,” said McNally. “12 people from the district will decide his guilt or innocence.” [in New York where he’s been indicted]”And ultimately the burden will be on the prosecutor’s shoulders.”

lawsuit against Maduro

According to the indictment, since about 1999, Maduro and his indicted Venezuelan leaders “partnered with some of the world’s most violent and prolific drug traffickers and narco-terrorists,” including the FARC and ELN groups in Colombia, the Sinaloa and Los Zetas cartels in Mexico, and the Tren de Aragua gang in Venezuela.

Other names charged in the case include: Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Floresaka “Niño Guerrero”, the so-called leader of Tren de Aragua.

Trump accused Tren de Aragua of committing violence in the United States and used alleged ties between him and Maduro to justify using wartime law to send Venezuelans accused of gang involvement to a notorious El Salvador prison. However, Maduro’s connections to the group have been heavily questioned in the past. by US intelligence agencies – and the indictment does not mention any specific connection between Maduro and Guerrero Flores.

The indictment alleges that Maduro and his collaborators “facilitated the strengthening and growth of violent narco-terrorist groups that fuel their organizations with cocaine profits,” including “providing law enforcement protection and logistical support for the transportation of cocaine through Venezuela, knowing that their drug trafficking partners would transport the cocaine to the northern United States.”

Specifically, the report alleges that between 2006 and 2008, when Maduro was foreign minister, he sold diplomatic passports to people he knew to be drug traffickers, specifically so they could transport drug proceeds from Mexico back to Venezuela “under diplomatic protection” and without their flights being inspected by military or law enforcement.

It is also alleged that between 2004 and 2015, Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, “worked together to traffic cocaine, much of which had previously been seized by Venezuelan law enforcement, with the assistance of armed military escorts.”

The report claims the couple “maintained their own group of state-sponsored gangs.” collectives to facilitate and protect drug trafficking operations” and “ordered kidnappings, beatings, and murders of individuals who owed them drugs or otherwise undermined drug trafficking operations, including ordering the murder of a local drug kingpin in Caracas.”

The indictment cites half a dozen other criminal cases already filed in the United States against Maduro and others allegedly linked to his alleged collaborators, many of whom have been convicted.

What’s ahead

Stabile said the legally dubious nature of Maduro’s capture will undoubtedly be a factor in upcoming criminal proceedings, with his defense team likely arguing that his detention was unlawful. “This will be front and center, and I assume it will be the subject of a motion to dismiss,” he said.

However, it is not yet clear whether anything will come of this claim; Because U.S. courts have in the past allowed criminal proceedings to continue against people caught abroad, including former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega. Part of the US argument for why Noriega could be prosecuted was that he was not the legitimate leader of Panama; It is likely that this argument will also be put forward in the Maduro case.

Beyond that, Stabile said how the case turns out will depend on what evidence the government has against Maduro.

“Will his case be based solely on the testimony of sources and collaborators, as was the case with Mayor Hernandez?” He said stable. “Or are there records? Are there videos? Are there bank records? Are there text messages? Are there emails?”

McNally said prosecutors will be watching to see who lines up to testify against Maduro.

“The common thread in most high-level narcotics trafficking cases, international narcotics trafficking cases that are brought and presented to trial, is that you end up running into co-conspirators, people who are part of the conspiracy, people who are accomplices of the defendant, and they ultimately decide, hey, it’s in my best interest to come forward and testify,” said McNally.

“Obviously they are being cross-examined and will often be accused of lying for their own benefit,” he said. “But in my experience, collaborators are especially valuable in these types of cases, and the important thing is to support them with other witnesses who tell the same story or documentary evidence.”