Will Donald Trump trigger global oil shock? India’s exit from Russian oil market could push crude prices to $200
At a time when the US economy is increasing inflation due to increasing tariffs, India’s exit from the Russian oil market will trigger a global oil shock as it can increase its raw prices to $ 200 per barrel.
US President Donald Trump introduced an additional 25% penal tariff to India to buy Russian oil.
After attacking India to the center to buy the left, right and Russian oil, the United States said a highly anticipated dissolution. In the latest development, Sergio Gor, the Ambassador of India, said the new Delhi and Washington were not “so far away” in tariffs. “Even though we have a hiccup moment, we are on the way to solve it,” the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said. He said. However, in the ongoing trade talks, we want the Indian market to be opened for crude oil, oil products and LNG. “
Will India stop buying Russian oil?
In the beginning of hot India-US relations, Gor, like others, stressed that India should stop buying Russian oil and instead should buy it from the USA. Previously, state -owned oil companies Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd ordered two million barrels of US oil. These orders are for September-October. Although India did not stop buying Russian crude oil and there was no official communication for any oil PSUs that would stop doing it, these refiners significantly reduced purchases.
(Sergio Gor, Candidate, Ambassador to India)
What if India stops buying Russian oil?
Since India’s withdrawal from the Russian oil market will create an important supply gap, no one can deny that it will disrupt the supply chain. India is the second largest buyer of Russian oil after China. As of August 2025, it imported approximately 1.5 million barrels (BPD) per day. Russia produced an average of 7.3 million BPDs and sold about 4 million BPDs in August. In August 2025, China acquired about 1.2 BPD from Russia. Although China and Türkiye and other countries will continue to receive Russian oil, they cannot fully compensate for India’s absence.
How much can raw prices rise?
“If India continues to buy India, this will be a real problem for Russia – China cannot take the entire volume of India on its own,” China cannot take the entire volume of India. ” This imbalance can lead to the boredom of global supply. Experts believe that this supply outage can increase Brent raw prices to $ 100 per barrel. According to Reuters, the raw price can touch $ 200 per barrel under extreme scenarios.
How can he change market dynamics?
International Energy Agency (IEA) said that OPEC+ and non -OPEC countries can increase raw production such as USA, Canada, Brazil and Guyana. As a result, global oil supply is likely to increase. However, this increase may not be enough to balance the loss of India’s demand for Russian oil. OPEC+ grouping consists of 12 original OPEC members and 10 non -OPEC partners, including Russia. Among the non -OPEC countries are the US, Canada and China.
