With few good strategic options, Iran’s best prospect may be to retaliate while it can | Iran
Venezuelan Nicholás Maduro was captured. But Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have chosen a different strategy for Iran: to target and aim to kill the country’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and as many senior figures in the regime as possible.
Although Iran’s military facilities and air defense systems were also targeted by the coordinated bombardment of the USA and Israel, the most important attack since the morning hours was made on Khamenei’s compound in Tehran.
A video on social media showed thick clouds of smoke rising from the area in the capital following the daylight attack, and shortly afterwards satellite images showed the area being destroyed in what appeared to be a targeted attack.
Khamenei’s fate remains unclear, but his intention was to attempt to effect regime change in Iran through bombings and killings without any credible justification in international law. This is a disturbingly easy tactic to initiate, but the results are extremely uncertain.
During last summer’s 12-day war with Israel, Khamenei identified three potential successors if he was killed. Reports earlier this month indicated that Khamenei had given that name. four consecutive layers For key government and military affairs to ensure regime survival in the face of US-Israeli aggression.
“There is no sign that the United States or anyone else will intervene militarily in the region, so the monopoly on power domestically remains with the Iranian regime,” said HA Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. “The only way to change is [is] If there is an uprising with mass flight.”
Explosions were heard in Tehran, Isfahan, Kermanshah, Qom and other major cities during a widespread attack that began in the morning; This was done in an attempt to achieve a measure of operational surprise, a deliberate change from a more normal night-time attack pattern.
The Israeli military said hundreds of targets were hit in multiple waves, with little evidence of opposition from what remained of Iran’s air defenses, which were already exhausted after last summer’s 12-day war and were hit again on Saturday. According to the country’s military, 200 Israeli warplanes attacked air defense and ballistic launch sites, hitting political and military targets.
Last month, the US assembled two carrier strike groups in the region: USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea and was recently joined by USS Gerald R Ford in the eastern Mediterranean. Each aircraft carrier has an air wing of about 75 fighter jets, while allied destroyers and submarines have Tomahawk cruise missiles, each with a range of about 1,000 miles or more.
Aware that it faced an existential crisis for its regime, Iran responded by rapidly launching ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and U.S. allies and bases in several countries in the region (Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia), immediately drawing six more countries into the conflict.
Although the UK clearly believes that the initial attack on Iran was illegal and is not party to the US-Israeli attack, it has already been drawn into the region by supplying warplanes to protect its regional allies.
Early signs are that, as a conventional military conflict, the struggle is extremely one-sided. Israeli military think tank Alma reported that Iran targeted Israel with a wave of 25 attacks by 17.30 local time, while Israel’s Magen David Adom ambulance service reported that 89 people were injured.
While one person died as a result of the missile falling in Abu Dhabi, a fire broke out at the Fairmont hotel in Dubai after it was hit. So far, casualties from Iran’s regional retaliation appear limited, but all it takes is one missile to pass somewhere along the course of a regional war.
A missile was filmed hitting the US naval base in Bahrain (the level of damage caused is not yet clear) and then a single Shahed-type delta-wing drone was filmed targeting a radar dome. Both hits were surprising, given that the United States had preemptively airlifted Patriot air defense systems to regional bases last month.
Meanwhile, it appears that Iran has suffered heavier losses. According to the country’s Tasnim news agency, 85 people were killed in an attack on a girls’ primary school in Minab, southern Iran; This is a painful reminder that so-called precision bombing is often not true, the victims are civilians.
By evening, Iran appeared to be trying to secure the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through Iran and the Gulf states. According to the statement, warnings were broadcast to commercial ships via VHF radio. UK Shipping Organization.
Iran may attempt to mine two 3.9-mile-wide shipping lanes with Russian Kilo-class and midget Ghadir submarines, but it is unclear whether such an operation would be successful. The strategy makes it clear enough that the US is almost certain to have submarines to prevent or disrupt a mine-laying operation.
Early indications are that the US and Israel are planning a bombing campaign that could last weeks, while Iran has exhausted its stockpile of an estimated 2,000 ballistic missiles. While the ability to retaliate on a large scale may only last a few days, the United States can conduct more than 125 bombing missions per day from each of its aircraft carriers alone.
Under constant attack, Iran has few good strategic options. The regime’s best bet may be to try to withstand the waves that are likely to come, continue to retaliate as best it can, and try to maintain control of the streets, given that the US and Israel have so far stated that they do not intend to stage a land invasion.
If this is the case, it is not clear how the war will end. “In short, the US and Israel launched this war with vague and unattainable objectives, with no basis in international law and with little or no support from the Gulf states or other US allies,” said Lord Ricketts, the UK’s former national security adviser.
