Hassett Fed chair odds fall, Warsh chances surge on Kalshi after Trump comments
Kevin Warsh, former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring meetings at IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, United States, Friday, April 25, 2025.
Tierney L. Cross | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Forecast markets swayed sharply on Friday after President Donald Trump said Kevin Warsh was at the top of his list as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Kalshi’s chances rose from about 15% to 40% after Trump told the Wall Street Journal that Warsh was one of the top candidates. Meanwhile, the implied probability that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett could be the next Fed chairman briefly fell below 60%, from 80% recently.
Asked directly if Warsh was now his top choice, Trump said, “Yes, I guess so,” according to the newspaper. The comments quickly resonated with the prediction markets.
Trump hinted that Hassett was also still in the race and that the NEC director was still leading the Kalshi race.
“I think you’ve got Kevin and Kevin. Both; I think two Kevins are great,” Trump said.
Hassett has been the market’s clear favorite for months, but his chances fell Friday afternoon as investors priced in Trump’s latest signal.
Other candidates under consideration include current Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, as well as Rick Rieder, who runs the fixed income operation at money management giant BlackRock. They were the last of a group of 11 candidates considered for the post. Kalshi essentially eliminated their chances of getting the top job.
Trump also reiterated his long-held view Friday that the Fed chairman should consult with the president on interest rate policy. Trump has been at odds with the current chairman, Jerome Powell, as he continues to push for lower interest rates. The Fed has cut the federal funds rate by three percent since September.
