Analysis: Why Gaza truce puts Netanyahu and Hamas at political risk

JERUSALEM — The ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Hamas on Thursday provided a stirring moment in one of the darkest periods of the decades-long conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. But for both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas, the agreement could be the poison pill that symbolizes their downfall.

Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history with a total term of 17 years in office, now must deal with the next day in Gaza looking very different from the vision he used to impress his allies and keep his rivals at bay.

Hamas, on the other hand, faces a war-torn population that is fed up with its own rule even before the October 7, 2023 attack; Two years later, with more than 67,000 people dead, many more injured and much of the Palestinian district in ruins, many residents of Gaza are outraged by what they see as the militant group’s reckless gambit.

The agreement, which President Trump reached after weeks of consultations with Israel and a number of Arab and Muslim countries – not to mention intense pressure on it – brings some victory that both sides can claim, namely a swap that would see all Israeli hostages remaining in Hamas captivity exchanged for thousands of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Netanyahu and Hamas declared it a success.

“This is a diplomatic success and a national and moral victory for the State of Israel,” Netanyahu wrote on X on Thursday, praising the breakthrough achieved through “firm determination, strong military action” as well as Trump’s efforts.

Meanwhile, Hamas said in a statement that the agreement was a result of the “determination of the Palestinian people” and “Resistance”, referring to Palestinian groups.

However, these victories cannot be said to be complete.

Netanyahu had promised that Hamas would not only be defeated but also destroyed by removing its arsenal. He has also made it his long-standing mission to ensure that no Palestinian state emerges; He hoped to achieve this by conquering Gaza and annexing the West Bank.

Students and supporters of the Jamaat-e-Islami political party gather to express their solidarity with Palestinians during an anti-Israel protest in Islamabad, Pakistan, on October 9, 2025.

(Aamir Qureshi / AFP/Getty Images)

Instead, the Israeli military has halted its attacks as the fate of Hamas’ weapons remains uncertain, and Trump recently said he “will not allow” Israel to annex the West Bank.

Moreover, Trump’s 20-point plan not only defeated the idea of ​​deporting Gazans, but also encouraged them to stay. And Netanyahu was forced to concede the possibility of a Palestinian state just days after giving an impassioned and defiant speech at the United Nations rejecting such a thing.

The coalition he relied on to stay in power is already showing cracks; Extremist figures representing settler interests are expressing anger that Netanyahu has not stayed in line and continued fighting.

Meanwhile, his opponents see the end of the conflict as a chance to oust him. And his critics among Israeli voters (elections are scheduled for October 2026) are not only rejecting him at the ballot box, but also expelling anyone associated with his leadership.

On Thursday in Tel Aviv’s so-called Hostage Square, Israelis showed some of that anger. When Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz, who served in Netanyahu’s Cabinet until last year, walked through the crowd, scammers shouted at him to “go home” and accused him of claiming an achievement he had not earned.

“When the war started, Gantz joined Bibi and saved him instead of overthrowing his government,” said Einat Mastbaum, a 50-year-old Hebrew teacher, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname. He said these actions kept Netanyahu’s government in place and prolonged the hostages’ ordeal.

44-year-old Udi Goren, whose cousin Tal Haimi was killed on October 7, 2023, said that Israel needs new faces to realize the change that many Israelis demand after this war.

“Now is the time to support a better future for us Israelis and Palestinians, to draft a new narrative for ourselves,” he said. “After what we’ve been through the last two years, we don’t want this to happen again.”

Einav Zangauker, mother of hostage Matan Zangauker in a blue shirt, celebrates people’s reaction to news of the Israel-Hamas peace agreement in the so-called Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on October 9, 2025.

(Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Yet it would be foolish to ignore Netanyahu, who is a consummate politician in Israel’s political landscape and has repeatedly proven his ability to gauge the national mood and recover from setbacks, including a protracted corruption trial and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court that he successfully postponed throughout the war.

Although his claim to completely defeat Hamas falls short, he can legitimately demonstrate that he has left Israel as the undisputed hegemon in the region, whether by destroying the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah or dealing a crippling blow to Iran. If implementation of the agreement continues smoothly, it may succeed in expanding normalization agreements to other Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, polls show he is regaining his popularity after taking a hit in the days after the Oct. 7 attack.

Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli public opinion researcher, said the agreement would “strengthen it”.
“This will make him look like he’s the only person in the country who can work this well with Trump.”

“It’s a lot more popular today than it was five days ago,” Trump said at the White House.

Hamas’ situation appears more complex. He said he would play no role in the future administration of Gaza, a key demand of Israel and America. But his main rival in the Palestinian Authority, which ruled Gaza until Hamas emerged victorious in elections in 2006, is seen by many Palestinians as hopelessly corrupt, or even outright traitorous, due to his security coordination with Israel, which has seen authority forces attack anti-Israel Palestinian resistance groups and activists.

At the same time, the idea that Hamas has any power at all seems untenable.

Nidal Laqqan (37), a former trader from Khan Younis who has been displaced for the last two years, said, “They set the whole of Gaza on fire. Our homes, our jobs, our future were destroyed because of reckless decisions.”

He said many people he knows feel the same way.

“People are angry. This was an unplanned adventure,” he said. “We need a new Palestinian leadership that puts our interests first. Military steps should no longer be taken without considering the people who will pay the price.”

Special correspondent Bilal Shbeir in Deir al Balah, Gaza Strip, contributed to this report.