‘Yes Bibi, or no Bibi’: what does Gaza deal mean for Benjamin Netanyahu’s future? | Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his promise to force Hamas to disarm in a defiant and combative speech on Friday, just an hour after the ceasefire in Gaza began.

Inside a televised addressThe Israeli prime minister said he resisted intense internal and external pressure to achieve his goal of ensuring “Israel’s security,” slammed his critics and reiterated his threat to return to war if necessary.

Netanyahu said, “Hamas agreed to the deal only when it felt that the sword was on its neck and it was still on its neck… Hamas will be disarmed and Gaza will be demilitarized… If this can be achieved the easy way, the better. If not, it will be achieved the hard way.”

The agreement, signed early Thursday and implemented on Friday, will lead to the release of Hamas 20 living hostages The withdrawal of Israeli forces from parts of Gaza within 72 hours and the release of approximately 2,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons. The next steps are still unclear.

In his speech, Netanyahu said that ensuring Israel’s security meant “breaking the Iranian axis, of which Hamas is a central component,” and claimed that he achieved this during 24 months of uninterrupted conflict.

Analysts described the speech as an “election speech”.

“He’s always campaigning. Every time he speaks it’s like: ‘I ordered this,’ ‘I ordered that.’ It’s always me, me, me… That’s what he does best,” said Yossi Mekelberg, an expert on Israeli politics at the Chatham House think tank in London.

Netanyahu’s popularity has not improved significantly since the surprise Hamas raid on October 7, 2023, which triggered the war in Gaza. In the attack, 1,200 people, most of them civilians, died and 250 people were taken hostage. Since then, even slight increases for Netanyahu and his Likud party, following military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon last year and against Iran in June, have come at the expense of other members of the current ruling coalition, the far-right wing in Israel’s history.

Elections in Israel are due to be held in about a year, but most observers expect them to be held within six months. The latest poll, published Friday by the Israeli newspaper Ma’ariv, showed that widespread support among Israelis for a ceasefire and the release of hostages increased Likud by just two seats, leaving the current coalition still facing defeat by a large margin.

Far-right ministers who have long vowed to overthrow the current government if the war ends Complete destruction of Hamas and Israel’s control of all of Gaza has so far failed to fulfill its threats. Almost half of the respondents in the Ma’ariv survey wanted the vote to be held as soon as possible.

“Bibi [a widely used nickname for Netanyahu] he had to accept that this was the end of the war, even if he didn’t use those specific words… so now he’s going to make the best of the situation. Everything is fine with Bibi,” said Anshel Pfeffer, The Economist’s Israel correspondent and Netanyahu biographer.

“Even at the age of 75, he cannot imagine a life outside of being prime minister… and [to hold on to power] It is proven that he is not the man responsible for October 7, but the man who destroyed the Iranian axis. “I don’t think there’s a scenario where he’ll go look at the rose bushes.”

The coming weeks will bring new challenges for Netanyahu, who has been in power in Israel for a total of 18 years, longer than the country’s founding father, David Ben Gurion. He faces corruption charges that could see him banned from public office or even jailed, and will also face fresh calls for a full judicial investigation into the failures that allowed Hamas’ 2023 raid. Any ceasefire in Gaza is likely to be fragile, and the thorny parts of Trump’s plan, including many elements that favor Israel, will be extremely difficult to implement.

The key for Netanyahu will be to convince Israelis that he remains “Mr. Security” even though the worst security disaster in the country’s history occurred on his watch. This will be helped by the support that Donald Trump is expected to offer in his speech to the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, on Monday.

Udi Tenne, strategic advisor and international campaign manager, said: “Netanyahu is the main story of this war… Today Israel finds itself in the strongest security position in its history: there is no Syrian threat, Hezbollah has been dealt a heavy blow, so have Iran and Hamas. Netanyahu’s likely message will be: we fell asleep, but we rose up in full force – and we defeated all Israel’s enemies,” said strategic advisor and international campaign manager Udi Tenne. Tenne worked with senior leaders in Israel.

Despite the cost of the war in Gaza, Israel’s international isolation and divisions within the country, the broader political landscape may still favor Netanyahu. Any opposition has been fragmented.

Lahav Harkov, senior political correspondent for the US-based Jewish Insider, said Israel and its politicians are shifting to the right.

“The Israelis don’t seem to have much appetite for pro-peace issues right now,” Kharkov said. “It may not seem logical, but the fundamental question in Israeli politics is still the same as it has been for a long time: Yes Bibi or no Bibi?”