Rise Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) price targets are nothing new for founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor Strategy(NASDAQ:MSTR)formerly company MicroStrategy. He is often considered the biggest Bitcoin bull in the world and his company is the world’s largest institutional owner of Bitcoin.
It’s one thing to make bullish price predictions when the Bitcoin price is rising. But doing so while the Bitcoin price is trading more than 30% below its all-time high in October is another thing.
That’s what makes the latest price predictions so striking. He currently thinks that Bitcoin could rise to the $150,000 price level by the end of 2025 and reach the $1 million price level by the end of 2029. If that’s the case, that would mean a dizzying 1,049% gain for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
There are a number of important assumptions Saylor makes in his $1 million price estimate.
Most importantly, Saylor assumes that the rate of institutional adoption of Bitcoin will continue to increase in the coming years. The first big step was taken in 2023, when Wall Street began to embrace the idea that Bitcoin was an independent asset. asset class It has unique risk-reward characteristics. The next step was the launch of new spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. And the final step came in 2025 with the implementation of the Trump administration’s new pro-Bitcoin policies.
This is a good environment for Bitcoin to move forward into 2026. According to Saylor, Wall Street’s new products make it easier than ever to hedge Bitcoin’s volatility. At the same time, banks and financial institutions are looking at ways to create new Bitcoin-based financial products, such as new loan products secured by Bitcoin. This will help create even more demand for Bitcoin over time.
Image source: Getty Images.
Another important assumption is that Bitcoin will continue to rival gold as a potential store of value. The “digital gold” moniker is already commonplace, and Bitcoin has at times acted as a safe-haven asset in times of extreme macroeconomic uncertainty. Earlier this year, fears of higher global tariffs caused traders and investors to shift their money into gold and Bitcoin.
Over time, Saylor sees Bitcoin’s market value rivaling the market value of physical gold. Currently, the market cap of gold is approximately $30 trillion, while the current market cap of Bitcoin is $1.75 trillion. If Saylor is right, this represents a potential 15 to 20x increase in Bitcoin valuation. This easily leads to a price of over $1 million for Bitcoin based on the current price of $87,000.
Given Bitcoin’s track record, it’s easy to believe many of Saylor’s basic assumptions. At a time when the US government is creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the Trump administration is promising to make America the “crypto capital of the world,” it is hard not to see the pace of institutional adoption increasing over time. In many respects, the Bitcoin genie is already out of the bottle.
But the real paradox arises in all the assumptions that Bitcoin is “digital gold”. If this is true, shouldn’t it perform like physical gold?
This year Bitcoin is down 8%. By comparison, gold is up more than 65% for the year. Simply put, this shouldn’t be happening.
Moreover, crypto bulls continue to claim that Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle is now a thing of the past. This also seems a little unrealistic.
Historically, Bitcoin has been prone to four-year boom and bust cycles. In 2014, 2018 and 2022, the value of Bitcoin dropped. If history is any guide, 2026 is shaping up to be another crash year for Bitcoin.
But due to a wave of buying from large institutional buyers and the emergence of new spot Bitcoin ETFs, some now argue that Bitcoin is heading for an economic supercycle. So is it really possible that the Bitcoin price will only increase from here?
The only good sign, at least for now, is that major Bitcoin treasury companies have not started selling their Bitcoins yet. If so, it may be time to head for the exits. For its part, the Strategy is actually increasing Bitcoin purchasing heading into 2026.
Although Bitcoin could reach a price of $1 million by the end of 2029, the most likely scenario is that it will take much longer. I expect the Bitcoin price to rise further over the next few years, but I am also preparing for future fluctuations, including a possible decline in 2026.
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Dominic Basulto They have positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in Bitcoin and recommends it. The Motley Fool has a feature disclosure policy.
