U.S.-China truce extension hangs in the balance as deadline looms
A man passes the flags of China and the United States before a meeting between US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and China’s Deputy Prime Minister, and on April 5, 2024 at the Guangdong Zhudao Guest House in Guangzhou, the South China city of Guangzhou.
Pedro Pardo | AFP | Getty Images
The United States and China did not announce an extension to the tariff deadline, but when a fragile ceasefire ended, the tensions on a few thorny problems shone again.
Following the latest bilateral meeting in Stockholm in July, Beijing threw an optimistic tone, saying it would be both sides. Try to extend the tariff ceasefire 90 more days.
However, the US negotiators put the ball in the court of President Donald Trump to extend the tariff ceasefire. So far, Trump has offered little symptom that he would go to an extension, and stopped concerns that tensions between the world’s largest economies could rise again.
In May, the two sides reduced a 90 -day tariff ceasefire, 145% inhibitory tasks in April, while at the same time pause a series of punishing measures, allowing him to reach a permanent agreement for more negotiation. HE agreement It will end on Tuesday.
China’s shipments to the United States are faced with a 20% tariff regarding the alleged role of the country in the country’s flow to the United States and a 10% basic tariff, 25% task for certain goods It was imposed in the first period of Trump. According to China, American goods, Peterson International Institute of Economics.
The US Trade Representative and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to CNBC’s comments.
While an official tariff extension is still in balance, experts expect a summit between Trump and Xi in Beijing in the coming months.
“This means a more stable US-China relationship … But in any way a more friendly relationship,” he said.
Purchase contract, transfer
Despite the tariff ceasefire, the trade between Washington and Beijing was significantly hit.
China’s July trade data showed that the US exports to the US have shrunk for a fourth month in a row. It decreases 21.7% compared to the previous year. In May, shipments, according to the data obtained from the wind information, since the beginning of the pandema had sunk the most.
A potential trade agreement, Chinese goods, especially energy, agricultural goods and the United States, if it allowed it, semi -conductors and disintegration equipment may commit to increase the purchases of the purchase, he said.
China’s general imports from the USA 10.3 % dropped January -Temmuz period.
One of the most possible results will be a “sequel” for an agreement signed in January 2020, stating that the last agreement could take various forms, he said.
At that time, China had accepted an increase of 200 billion dollars in the annual purchases of US goods and services according to 2017 levels, which is a target in which Beijing did not encounter in the trade in which it broke the pande.
“Trump’s first-stage agreement can be seen as an unfinished job and renewed with higher purchasing goals.”
In a shipment Real Social Sunday Night StateideTrump said he hoped that China will “quickly four times the soybeans’ orders.” According to wind information, China has increased its purchases of soybeans in recent months in recent months, and import volumes increased by 36.2%, 10.4% and 18.4% in May, June and July, respectively.
China’s total exports to the United States fell by 12.6% as of July this year. However, this was largely balanced to Southeast Asian countries with a 13.5% export growth and examined the so -called “transfer” of goods.
Trade experts warned that exports, which have a critical growth driving force for China’s economy, can slow down in the coming months, because Trump receives a 40% tariff on goods directed from third -party countries, but provided little clarity about how to identify these posts.
Semiconductor export controls
The tensions on semiconductor export controls between the US and China have increased in recent weeks, even if they planned Nvidia’s planning. Continue sales of the H20 chip to China, reversing export controls in H20 sales implemented by Trump in April.
Political Counseling Teneo General Manager Gabriel Wildau said that the re -start of the H20 was “a modest route correction instead of a strategic change,” and said significant export control loosening will not be realized.
However, Trump may consider compromising on export controls that others under the rule of others in order to make an agreement with Beijing.
The re -start of H20 sales warns that the US chips and other technologies under the Trump management can strengthen China’s AI sector and army. Others argue that more restriction may encourage Beijing to improve their efforts to develop internal alternatives and reduce their confidence in American suppliers.
Chinese officials, in a statement to China, the US in 2024 former President Joe Biden banned by the high -band -wide memory chips wanted to facilitate export controls. Nvidia And AMD In order to secure export licenses, they agreed to give 15% of their income to China from chip sales to the US government. Financial Times Reported.
“What we see is the US trade policy that the US trade policy should pay for the export permission to the US government for the US government. If this is the case, we entered a new and dangerous world.” He said.
Rare land exports
The leverage, where Beijing has dominated the rare worlds, may be an additional factor that pushes Trump to compromise – and according to experts, Beijing could be almost a card that Beijing will definitely use.
Beijing agreed to relax The ban on export to the US in rare land metals and magnets in June and although there were little details about the commitment of the shipment of critical minerals, it was moved to accelerate the licensing process after a series of negotiations.
In June, the country’s rare land exports have increased by 60% of 60% since January 2012, according to data on wind information before falling to 5.994.3 metric tons in July.
According to official customs data, China’s rare Toprak Magnet exports to the USA in June jumped to the US more than seven floors in June in June, and American companies received approximately 353 metric tons of permanent magnets in June. A similar country -specific fault will be published on August 20th.
Secondary tariffs according to Russian crude oil
Another prickly issue in the US-China negotiation is the threat of Trump’s punishment of Beijing with additional tariffs on Russian oil purchases.
Chinese The biggest buyer of Russian oilAfterwards, India, who saw that the US tariffs doubled last week, was doubled.
Answering a question about whether to punish China for the same reason for the same reason, Trump said, “I can’t tell you yet. But I can – I did it – we did it with India. We probably do it with a few people. One may be China.”
According to the latest customs data, China’s general imports from Russia have increased to the highest level since March, to the highest level since March, and to the highest level since March.
Xi organized a telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin before the Russian leader’s meeting with Trump on Russia-Ukraine.
Evercore Heat’s leading Chinese economist Neo Wang said that the phone call with Putin appeared as “urgent” as the XI was planned during the planned annual summer vacation.
“They want to use their close ties with both Xi and Putin and Trump in the negotiations with what they actually talk about during their calls or even an agreement was reached,” Wang said.
