Global robotaxi race heats up between U.S. and Chinese rivals

BEIJING — Chinese robotaxi companies are expanding abroad faster than U.S. rivals Waymo and Waymo Tesla’s – at a time when industry leaders say autonomous driving is finally approaching an inflection point.

“I think robotaxis has reached a turning point in both China and the United States.” baidu CEO Robin Li said on an earnings call Tuesday, according to a FactSet transcript.

“There are enough people [had the] “The chance to experience driverless rides and word-of-mouth generated positive feedback on social media,” he said, noting that broader public participation could speed up regulatory approval.

His comments echoed similar notes of optimism over the past few weeks From Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Xpeng Co-Chairman Brian Gu, who reversed his previously cautious stance following faster-than-expected technological advances. Xpeng will launch robotaxi in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou next year.

It’s a global market with significant growth potential, likely worth more than $25 billion by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs estimates in May.

To seize this opportunity, Chinese companies are aggressively expanding abroad and claiming they are close to making robotaxiing a viable business rather than burning cash to grab market share.

In the last 18 monthsBaidu, Pony.ai and WeRide have landed partnerships with Uber allowing ride-hailing app users to order a robotaxi certain placesIt starts from the Middle East.

Counterpoint Senior Analyst Murtuza Ali said such connections “will be critical to success” as they enable robotaxi companies to operate more efficiently and reach profitability faster.

Baidu says its Apollo Go robotaxi unit has achieved profitability per vehicle in Wuhan since late last year and operates more than 1,000 vehicles in the company’s largest deployment in China.

This means the number of passengers is enough to offset the Wuhan taxi fare, which is 30% cheaper than in Beijing or Shanghai and well below prices in the US or Europe. In addition to developing autonomous driving systems, Baidu also It produced 50% cheaper, electric-powered robotaxi vehicles without the need for a third-party manufacturer.

Scale remains the dividing line. in the USA, AlphabetOwned by Waymo operates More than 2,500 vehicles and is rapidly expanding from major cities in California to Texas and Florida. enter london next year, following his first overseas venture in Tokyo.

Tesla is selling its electric cars in China and reportedly He exhibited his Cybercab in Shanghai this month. But it only began testing its robotaxi in Texas in June and this week received permission to operate in Arizona.

Amazon’s Zoox is also accelerating its expansion in the U.S. but has not released overseas plans.

The three companies have not announced plans to go head-to-head on robot axes.

Baidu Apollo Go’s Niu has not ruled out expansion into the US But for now, the robotaxi operator plans to enter Europe with trials in parts of Switzerland next month, following its expansion in the Middle East this year.

Abu Dhabi allowed Apollo Go last week pay a fee to the public Eight months for locally operated fully driverless robotaxi rides under the AutoGo brand after local trials begin in some parts of the city.

But Chinese startup WeRide he said this received a similar permit On October 31, it said it would charge for fully driverless robotaxi rides in Abu Dhabi, claiming that removing human staff from cars would allow it to profit from each vehicle.

this puts pony.ai It is the farthest from profitability among China’s three major robotaxi operators. CFO Leo Haojun Wang He told the Wall Street Journal In mid-September it was announced that the company aims to make a profit on each car by the end of this year or early next year.

Pony.ai plans to launch a fully autonomous commercial robotaxi business in Dubai in 2026. Testing permit in late September. The company plans to expand into Europe in the coming months and also Singapore.

Pony.ai and WeRide will report quarterly earnings early next week.

“Currently, companies such as Waymo, Baidu, WeRide and Pony.ai are leading in terms of fleet size, which puts them in an advantageous position in the race for profitability,” said Yuqian Ding, head of HSBC China Automobile Research.

Fleet size is becoming an indicator of competition. Pony.ai reportedly said this Plans to launch 1,000 robotaxis in the Middle East by 2028, with WeRide aiming to operate a fleet of 1,000 robotaxis in the region by the end of next year.

Apollo Go operates about 100 robotaxis in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and plans to double its fleet of vehicles in the next few months, Niu said.

“Apollo Go has a head start with much more test drives than the other two,” Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar, said in an email. “The more testing and data you collect from journeys taken, the more likely AI sensors are to recognize objects on the road, which means better safety.”

He noted that despite some initial progress, the robotaxi race remains uncertain because “no one’s vehicles have achieved mass adoption.”

Scope remains limited. Even in China, robotaxis are only allowed to operate in certain regions, but Pony.ai recently became the first company to receive regulatory approval to operate its robotaxis throughout Shenzhen, the so-called Silicon Valley of China. In Beijing, driverless taxis are mostly limited to a suburb called Yizhuang.

Anecdotally, CNBC testing found that the Pony.ai offers a smoother ride than the Apollo Go, which is prone to hard braking.

When it comes to safety, which is critical for regulatory approval, none of the six operators have so far reported deaths or serious injuries caused by robotaxis. But Apollo Go and Waymo started ad low airbag deployment rates.

While that may not be enough to convince regulators around the world, Beijing is expected to step up support at home.

HSBC’s Ding predicts that the number of robotaxis on China’s roads could rise from a few thousand to tens of thousands between the end of this year and 2026; It’s a shift that will give operators more evidence that their models are working.