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Why the US government might shut down and what to know

Anthony ZurcherNorth American correspondent And

James Fitzgerald

Anatolia, Getty Images File File Image Image of the US Capitol building, read with a blurred sign in the foreground "Stop Trump"Through Anadolu Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, unless he accepts the democrats of opposition in an expenditure bill, will be cut at the end of Tuesday for the US government.

This may bring the US government services to a temporary stop.

Although budget conflicts are common in US politics, this special spending struggle is particularly tense, considering that Trump greatly reduces the size of the federal government to a great extent.

Why can the US government be closed?

Simply put, any closure will be the result of the inability of the two sides to come together and an invoice financing can not transfer government services beyond and beyond.

Republicans control both their rooms of the Congress, but in the Senate – or upper room – they need to pass an expenditure invoice less than 60 votes.

For this reason, the democrats have some leverage in this case. They refuse to support a bill that the Republicans say that they would make it difficult for Americans to provide health care, and first of all, they have made this stance to advance their health policy goals.

They call for an extension of tax loans for reversing the deductions in Medicaid, which will expire – and Trump, which makes health insurance cheaper for millions of Americans. They also recommend spending interruptions to disease control centers and national health institutes.

Previously, a Stopgap bill has passed in the Assembly or Lower Chamber, but has not yet cleared the Senate.

When will the closure happen?

If no agreement is made, at 00: 01 EDT on Wednesday, 05:01 at 00: 01 EDT, the US will take its first closing within about seven years.

The government’s last bucket was in the first period of Trump at the end of 2018. Both sides are making the last ditch efforts to avoid again.

For the first time since he returned to the White House, Trump will first meet all four congress leaders on Monday – the best democrats and republican colleagues in the Assembly and the Senate.

However, Trump reduced the expectations of an agreement by telling the BBC’s US partner CBS News: “I don’t know how to solve this problem.”

What is the probability of closing?

At this point, the expectations of a kind of government seem to be high.

On the Republican side, Trump management officials do not want to make any important concessions so far.

They believe that the Democrats will carry the burden of the crime of the people, as in the past closes, the demands of the Democrats, as in the past closures.

In the meantime, the Democrats believe that it is popular for the forcing of protecting health insurance subsidies.

Moreover, the congress leaders provoked for supporting the anger of leftist activists in the last budget match in March. Many democrats are itchy for a bigger fight this time – and to provide funds to the government, one of the only places where their parties are a bit leverage.

What is different from the threat this time?

What stands out about this current coldness is the position of the White House.

In the past, long closures were often seen politically dangerous, and the voters’ daily lives and the images of the deputies and the president.

However, this time, the Trump administration seems to be very happy to decorate most of the US government for a long time. In fact, the authorities threatened to use a closure to identify “non -compulsory” workers.

In addition, after the previous closures, state operations often returned to normal, personnel and expenditure levels, after the posture was solved to a large extent returned to previous levels.

For the last nine months, however, the Trump administration has reduced expenditures and removed the workers from their work by testing the limits of the Presidential power. A closure may allow management to accelerate major decreases.

What effects have a closure?

If the congress does not exceed an expenditure bill, all the government will not be closed.

Border protection, internal medical care, law enforcement and air traffic control is expected to continue working during stopping.

Although social security and medicare controls will still be sent, the benefits and card export may stop.

In general, in a closure, basic workers continue normally – some of them without paying for time – but the state employees they think are not compulsory are temporarily allowed. In the past, these workers have been retrospectively paid.

This is expected to give or close the Food Assistance Program, Federal -funded pre -school, student loans, food inspections and operations in national parks.

At the same time, there may be travel delays if the stop is dragging and stopping the emergence of unpaid workers, and a long -term closure may also have secondary effects on the US economy.

How common closure in the USA?

It is quite common in the last 50 years.

In the first period of Trump, there were three days, including the longest time of history, which ended in January 2019.

Congress Budget Office (CBO) predicts that it reduces economic output It has never recovered about $ 11 billion, including $ 3 billion.

Republican Ronald Reagan controlled eight closure during the 1980s – they were all relatively short.

A BBC table compares the closure of several US government since 1980. In most cases, the closure took only a few days - except three important exceptions. In December 1995, the closure was 21 days. It was 16 days in September 2013. And 35 days in December 2018

The closures on budgets are almost unique to US politics.

Under the US system, the government’s different branches should reach an agreement on spending plans before becoming a law.

In most countries, budget votes become the government’s vote of trust. However, this is not the case because the US has equal and frequently divided branches of the government.

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