The shutdown meant no jobs report. Here’s what it would have said about the economy
Employers are talking about job seekers at the Internship and Business Fair of Appalachian State University in North Carolina, USA on Wednesday, October 1, 2025.
Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Do not worry if the first Friday of the month is not the same on the first Friday of the month without looking at the warm monthly job report of the Business Statistics Office. You probably didn’t miss too much.
Although it darkened with the closure in Bls Washington, other reports other than government data show that the labor market is progressing in September.
Dow Jones Consensus estimate was for 51,000 growth in non -agricultural payrolls, keeping the unemployment rate constant by 4.3%.
High -frequency data, including job advertisements, special payrolls and state figures for the first unemployment allegations, show that employment growth continues to be anemic, while the labor market is generally not at least at any time.
“We are fighting with the army we existed in such moments, it was critical to understand whether the economy is at the transition,” Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said in a CNBC interview on Friday. He said. “This is what we have and so far continues to point to a very stable labor market.”
Chicago Fed is one of the organizations that want to provide alternatives to BLS data under harsh White House criticism before the closure of this week.
Although the timing is a coincidence, the Central Bank Region was announced in September Its own indicator table Data measuring lock labor market metrics, including unemployment, recruitment rate and dismissal rate.
Lower line: The unemployment rate was kept constant at a rate of 4.3%, but the hundred of one or two points would push to 4.4% – the highest since October 2021, but still lower than historical standards.
Other civilian social data showed similar tendencies: in general, conditions are softened, and the existence of business is gradually shrinking.
However, employers are still reluctant with the workers when they follow the monumental task of filling these jobs, when they follow the monumental task of filling these jobs. At one point, open positions are more than 2 to 1 more than 2 to 1 number.
“Many of the new participants on the market, young workers, new graduates, already unemployed people [are] He has difficulty entering the market, “he said, Senior Economist Cory Stahle on the job advertisements site, and himself provides an inclusive menu of the labor market data.” Regardless of what the unemployment rate is, people who take longer to find a job are a sign of some economic problems for some households. “
Symptoms of imbalance
Really Size of job advertisements As of September 26, a decrease of approximately 8.9% compared to a year ago, which is a sharper decline than 5.5% reflected in the BLS data, which continues only until August.
While wider tendencies and other areas are delayed, health services continue to develop and that professions show an unequal labor market.
“In general, things look quite good, but most of these work gains, many of these advertisements and recruitment come from health services, and therefore it is difficult to say that the labor market is completely balanced when it does not provide equal opportunities in different professions.” He said.
BLS data also showed a huge slope in openings to health -related professions, and followed by business and professional services, followed by leisure and hospitality. The government was a leader, but since President Donald Trump has withdrawn since his intention from the Federal Payroll to his term of office.
“It’s a good time to become a nurse right now, it’s not good to work as a software developer.” “The bifurcation of the labor market is not only a general balance and a general number, but an important thing to look here.”
The other indicators also draw a similar picture, but the Adp’s special payroll for September decreased 32,000 work and 3,000 losses in August. ADP is also malignant because it is inconsistent with BLS data from time to time. However, the firm’s reports are more closely looking at BLS to point to slowing down in the labor market before marking their own counts.
It was not a monthly Farm payroll account that was lost due to the closure: the study department did not publish the weekly gang of the first unemployed claims.
Goldman Sachs came to the rescue of this metric and said that the filed state -level claim data is slightly higher than the previous week but largely in most of the year in accordance with trends, 224,000 national total.
Other measures
Beyond the number of simple work or payrolls, expenditure data can also be a useful indirect indicator.
Bank of America’s credit and debit card monitoring spent a stable increase in September. Total card expenditures increased by 2.2% for the week ending on 27 September compared to a year ago.
“Despite soft labor data, growth continues to be intact. We will continue to watch this duality,” Bofa economist Shrouti Mishra said. He said.
Similarly, Fiserve showed that annual sales and transactions of the small operating index increased by 2.3% in September and reflected the same tempo over the last three months.
However, other small business indicators show weakness.
“We see that there are many companies with business openings at the moment. Unfortunately, there are very little filled.” He said. “So their plans to fill them are always very optimistic, but when dust is cleaned, very little work is created.”
