One in three Manhattan condo owners lost money when they sold in the last year

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Although the upper end of the market is doing better, more than a third of condos sold in Manhattan last year sold at a loss, according to a new report.

Despite a steady stream of headlines about eye-popping sales and rising prices for Manhattan real estate, the average price per square foot for Manhattan apartments is essentially the same as it was a decade ago, according to a report from Brown Harris Stevens. According to the report, one in every three resales between July 2024 and June 2025 was sold at a loss. When inflation, transaction costs and renovations are factored in, the share of losses for apartment sellers is likely even higher, according to real estate analysts.

Although the data does not include co-ops, analysts say co-op prices are generally the same or slightly worse than condos.

“For the last decade, Manhattan has essentially been flat,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of appraisal and real estate research firm Miller Samuel.

The long-term price weakness in Manhattan stands in stark contrast to much of the country, where home prices have risen significantly since the pandemic, creating a widespread affordability crisis. Nationally, only 2% of home sellers who purchased a home before the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss, according to Redfin.

Manhattan is still among the most expensive markets in the country, especially on a per square foot basis. According to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman, the average price for Manhattan sales in the third quarter was $1.2 million; The average was just under $2 million. But long-term resale analysis reveals that timing of purchase in Manhattan often matters more than location.

Apartment owners who purchased before 2010 achieved the best results. According to the Brown Harris report, the average gain in this group for those who sold roughly last year was between 29% and 45%. Prices began to rise after the financial crisis and peaked in 2016. This means last year’s sales gains for those who purchased between 2011 and 2015 were a modest 11%.

Those who lost the most were those who purchased after 2016. Half of the buyers who made purchases between 2016 and 2020 sold at a loss during the survey period. Earnings were weak among those who purchased between 2021 and 2024; but some buyers who made deals during the depths of the Covid crisis in late 2020 and early 2021 may be better off.

Adding other purchasing, selling and ownership costs will further increase losses. Transaction costs in Manhattan can range from 6% to 10%, according to brokers. Renovations and improvements, maintenance fees or taxes are also not included in the losses. Adjusting for inflation will also increase losses and reduce returns.

Inflation has increased 36% in the last decade, said Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia University Business School.

“So if I had invested in a Manhattan condo in September 2015 (near the peak) and sold it in August 2025 for the same nominal price, which is a 0 percent nominal return, I would have actually lost 36 percent in real terms,” he said. “This is surprising as many people think real estate is a good inflation hedge.”

Case-Shiller noted that the national home price index rose 89% in the 10 years between September 2015 and August 2025, which is “much better than in NYC and also much higher than inflation of 36%.”

The reasons for Manhattan’s “lost decade” in apartment prices are as varied as they are controversial. State and local tax deduction caps that began in 2018 put pressure on prices and demand, as did the 2019 rent law. The migration of some high-income earners to Florida during Covid has also increased real estate fears, despite population and demand recovering rapidly.

The only exception to the trend was the market top. People who bought and sold apartments for $10 million or more made double-digit profits regardless of when they purchased.

Brokers and analysts say increased concentration of wealth at the top, rising stock markets and relentless demand from those less affected by economic and market cycles are leading to continued gains in the luxury market.

“The premium segment has performed better over the last decade, especially in the top 4% of the market,” Miller said. “This is because of Wall Street and the financial markets. And the ability to purchase cash regardless of interest rates.”

Two-thirds of apartment deals in the third quarter were for cash, Miller said, well above the historical average of 53 percent and showing the Manhattan market’s continued dependence on wealthy buyers who don’t need a mortgage.

In a market with frequent ups and downs, brokers say the current upswing presents an opportunity for both buyers and sellers.

“I’m a bullish believer and have a very positive outlook for New York real estate,” said Jared Antin, managing director at Brown Harris Stevens and a co-author of the report. “Even though some people lost money on deals [over the decade]losses were negligible. It speaks to the blue chip nature of the Manhattan market. Does anyone want to make money from their real estate? Certainly. But this market is incredibly stable.”

Antin said sellers who bought during the decline in 2020 and early 2021 could also see profits when they start selling.

Yet with median prices near all-time highs and uncertainty about the upcoming mayoral election, many potential buyers are opting to stay on the sidelines and rent, even if they can afford to buy. The number of households renting that make more than $1 million annually in New York City more than doubled between 2019 and 2023, to 5,661, according to a report from RentCafe.

What’s more, signed contracts for high-end apartments priced at $4 million or more fell 39% in September, following increases in August and July, according to Olshan Realty. Brokers blame a rapid decline in inventory and a lack of new supply from apartment construction rather than the decline in demand or fears that Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, will become New York City’s next mayor.

“There is definitely downside risk to the policy,” Miller said. “But as we have seen in the past, these fears are often exaggerated.”