How Trump’s China tariffs are taxing the price of a Halloween pumpkin

A deeper decline in consumer wallets this holiday season is expected to continue through Thanksgiving and Christmas, and it’s already being seen in the Halloween merchandise market.

DataWeave, which analyzes SKUs (stock keeping units), a scannable code that retailers use to identify and track a product, says it’s seeing big price increases among relatively inexpensive Halloween items, especially pumpkin carving-related items. Popular pumpkin carving company Pumpkin Masters, which offers a wide selection of carving and decorating kits, topped the list in percentage price increases, with year-over-year increases of up to 300%.

The tariff burden paid by importers, or Signature Brands, ranged from 58.1% to 59.6%, according to customs officials who examined products made in China and calculated approximate tariff costs for CNBC. Nunzio De Filippis, a tariff mitigation expert and licensed customs broker, noted that at these levels the importer is now paying tariffs and duties that amount to more than half the value of the product.

Joe Ens, CEO of Signature Brands, which owns Betty Crocker, Paas, Cake Mate, Gift Pop and Brand Castle, as well as Pumpkin Masters, told CNBC that the lion’s share of the cake decorating business is produced domestically and in Ocala, Florida, but Pumpkin Masters and Paas are 100% made in China. The company’s products were hit by the first trade war in 2018, but this time the increase in tariffs has made it difficult to keep prices at original levels, he says.

“I think given the scale of the tariffs we’re talking about here, it’s hard to imagine that domestic supply chains would absorb that many tariffs,” Ens said. “Obviously, when all is said and done, it is the retailers who will make the final pricing decision.”

According to DataWeave’s SKU analysis, the biggest increase among low-priced holiday products was Pumpkin Masters Xtreme Strobe Light White, with a whopping 331% retail price increase. The same light placed inside the pumpkin to illuminate it sold for $1.62 in 2024; this price was consistent until 2022. In 2025, the product retailed for $6.99.

Retailers give a large discount on the product from its list price and the product is sold. According to Kroger’s website, the product was originally listed for $6.99 but was later reduced to $3.49. Marked as sold out. Despite the discount, the price increased by 115.4%

Despite the price increase, consumer demand remains strong, Ens said. “Pumpkin carving is an annual tradition that we think they want to preserve. It’s such a valuable consumer behavior that people aren’t going to radically change for a pumpkin carving set that’s less than $6,” he said.

Signature Brands has become more familiar with consumer behavior in response to price increases for holiday products, Ens said. Last Easter, for example, the cost of eggs was a major challenge. “This is the same relationship where the cost of the activity increases,” Ens said.

Other Pumpkin Master products were also listed at much higher prices this year.

At regional grocer Giant Eagle, the Pumpkin Masters Contest Winners Pattern Book is up 330%; Pumpkin Masters Fright Light Kit is up 302%; and Pumpkin Master Carving Party Kit increased by 302%.

Kroger also sells Pumpkin Masters Jack O Lantern Teeth, up 283%; and Pumpkin Masters Masters Collection is up 214%.

Pick and Save, part of Kroger, also listed similar items at increases of more than 100%.

Kroger and Giant Eagle did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment on pricing strategy.

William George, director of research at ImportGenius, said a review of bills of lading and receipts detailing shipping shipments to the U.S. shows that shipment levels of pumpkin carving tools have been largely stable over the past three years. Other posts that include a cauldron, skeleton or tombstone in the product description are also live. “I think the main takeaway is that Halloween-labeled shipments are down slightly, while Halloween costume-labeled shipments are down significantly,” George said.

“The bulk of our business is direct imports, so our retail partners are assuming control overseas, so there has been some reduction in stocks brought in on the assumption that consumer conditions can be eased,” Ens said.

Signature Brands considered resuming production for Pumpkin Masters and Paas, which make popular Easter products, but Ens said it would be very difficult to be competitive in other markets in terms of labor costs and products made with injectable molds.

Seasonal items like Pumpkin Masters and Paas are usually planned a year in advance of the holiday.

“We are trying to define our demand for 2026 and see how this season goes,” Ens said. “While increases may not be desirable for such once-a-year purchases, people are investing in a tradition with their grandchildren or children, and we expect the pace to be as strong as in the past.”

The National Retail Federation predicts Halloween spending will hit a record $114 per person this year, but that’s likely a result of higher prices overall.

“Prices are rising in related categories, including costumes, candy and pumpkin carving tools, as retailers deal with global uncertainty and work to manage the impact and overall price to consumers,” said Lauren Murphy, managing director of Retail Finance at Wells Fargo.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point Wealth Advisors, said the price increase on low-cost items will have an overall impact on the consumer. For example, Halloween candy, along with pumpkin carving items, increased 10.8 percent; That’s nearly four times overall inflation compared to last year, according to the Century Foundation.

“The period from Halloween to Christmas will be a big test of American consumers’ tariff tolerance because it will be right in their financial face for months to come,” he said. “The problem with tariffs for a country like the United States that runs a trade deficit, where we import far more than we export, is like water seeping into every crevice because tariffs on almost everything have to eat most of it,” Boockvar said. he said.