Melissa’s powerful gusts top 200+ mph. Here’s what it forced NOAA aircraft to do

Hurricane Hunters struggled Cut short reconnaissance missions for Category 5 Hurricane Melissa Monday morning, Oct. 27, after the storm’s southwest eyewall encountered severe turbulence and winds of more than 200 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The decision comes as Melissa strengthened into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane, threatening Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas.

“The aircraft departed the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwest eyewall.” In the statement made by NOAA, the following statements were made: It marks a rare disruption in hurricane reconnaissance missions.

Melissa’s slow westward drift is expected to turn northward over the next 12 hours, then turn northeastward when it encounters the mid-latitude westerly flow. Forecasts call for the hurricane to move near or over Jamaica late Monday night or Tuesday, October 28-29, pass east of Cuba Tuesday night through Wednesday, and approach the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands by Wednesday. The effects of Bermuda can be seen until Thursday night, October 30.

Even before that the eye reaches the land, Impacts are being felt as hurricane-force winds extend nearly 300 kilometers from the center. Moving at just 3 miles per hour, Melissa actually lingers over the islands, creating long-lasting, steady effects that can last for days.

“Jamaica: Do not leave your safe haven,” the NHC wrote. “Destructive and life-threatening flash floods and multiple landslides are likely from today until Tuesday. Destructive winds will begin from this evening, especially in the mountains.”

Many experts have compared the hurricane to the effects of last year’s Hurricane Helene in the Appalachians, as the storm is set to impact the entire island, but will also rain down on the highest elevations.

“There is practically no difference whether Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, as both categories can produce devastating wind damage,” NHC forecasters said.

While fluctuations in intensity are possible due to the expected eyewall replacement cycle, forecasters say approaching Jamaica as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane would be catastrophic. Jamaica faces life-threatening flash floods, landslides and potentially total structural damage, especially in high altitude areas. Haiti and the Dominican Republic are also at risk of floods and landslides, while Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos must prepare for dangerous winds, storm surges and heavy rain.

Authorities in the affected areas are urging residents to complete preparations immediately and avoid leaving safe shelters.

As of Saturday afternoon, at least four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic were attributed to Melissa. AccuWeather reported.

Where is Hurricane Melissa headed?

Special note about NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path to the center of the storm. It does not show the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Melissa summary as of 8 a.m. on October 27:

• Location: 215 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica; Guantanamo, 320 miles southwest of Cuba; 469 miles south of West Palm Beach, Florida

• Maximum sustained winds: 160 mph

Melissa Forecasters said it could strengthen further over the next 12 to 24 hours in warm Caribbean waters south of Jamaica, where winds are relatively low. It is expected to be a strong, major hurricane when it makes landfall in Jamaica on the morning of Tuesday, October 28, and in southeastern Cuba on the night of Tuesday, October 29.

When will Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica? What you need to know

At 8 a.m., the prominent eye of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.4 North and longitude 78.0 West.

Melissa is moving west at about 3 mph. A slow turn to the northwest and north is expected today and tonight, followed by an acceleration to the northeast starting Tuesday and continuing through at least Thursday.

In line with the forecast, Melissa’s core is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, over southeastern Cuba on Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show maximum sustained winds around 100 mph, with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected today with fluctuations in intensity before Melissa reaches Jamaica early Tuesday.

Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as a strong major hurricane and will still be at hurricane strength as it moves through the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward as much as 30 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend outward as much as 30 miles.

The minimum central pressure obtained from Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 913 mb (26.96 inches).

Hurricane Melissa live webcams in Jamaica

Kingston Harbour, Jamaica

Barbicon Square, Kingston, Jamaica

Halfway Tree Clock junction, Jamaica

What is ‘rapid concentration’?

according to National Hurricane CenterA “rapid intensification” is an increase in maximum sustained winds in a tropical cyclone by at least 30 knots (34.5 mph) within 24 hours. It’s about a jump Two categories on the Saffir-Simpson scalemeasuring the tornado’s strength and potential damage on a scale of 1 to 5.

“Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an extremely favorable environment.” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said: In 2020. “Typically, this environment consists of very warm water, low vertical wind shear, and high levels of mid-level humidity.”

Forecasters said Hurricane Melissa was increasing in strength as it crossed the warm waters of the Caribbean.

From 104 Category 3 or higher hurricanes from 1990 to 2022 88% of them underwent rapid intensification According to a 2022 study by Klotzbach. Last year, 13 of the 37 named storms It rapidly intensified in the Atlantic and Pacific.

Other conditions may also contribute to rapid intensification, such as light upper atmospheric winds under high pressure that allow the hurricane to ventilate itself and strengthen. WeatherForecast.com in question.

Where is the storm headed next? See Hurricane Melissa spaghetti models, trajectory, projected path

Storm tracker: How strong is Hurricane Melissa and where is it headed?

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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the USA TODAY Network’s Weather Connect Reporter. He can be reached at baddison@gannett.com.. You can find him on Facebook here.

This article first appeared in the Fort Myers News-Press: Hurricane Melissa is reaching speeds of more than 200 miles per hour. Here’s why Hurricane Hunter escaped