New Jersey and Virginia governor races much tighter than expected

Democrats running for governor in New Jersey and Virginia should win easily.

But the races are still tougher than forecasters expected. Here’s why.

Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy officer, former prosecutor and also a sitting congressman, should defeat Jack Ciattarelli, a onetime councilman who has run and lost twice before.

Since I started my career at a New Jersey newspaper, I can say that the Garden State has never been as blue as it is now.

SHERRILL PULLS OUT WITH OBAMA APPROVAL, NEW JERSEY CAMPAIGN WITH THE STARS FORWARD AS THE RACE RISES

One of the problems Sherrill faces is that outgoing governor Phil Murphy is deeply unpopular, and voters tend not to reward the party in power when they disgust them.

There’s also the Trump factor hanging like a storm cloud over Tuesday’s races.

While Ciattarelli called Trump a “charlatan” in 2015, they have since made it up and the president has endorsed him. He voted against the bill legalizing same-sex marriage in 2012 but has since changed his mind.

Sherrill is doing everything he can to make the election about Trump. He attacks the president, knowing full well that Ciattarelli cannot separate himself from the Trump agenda on any issue without potentially triggering his ire.

Moreover, Trump also canceled the $16 billion tunnel between New Jersey and New York. This is poison among North Jersey commuters.

Throw in a month-long government shutdown and the weekend suspension of SNAP food benefits, and it’s a perfect storm for Sherrill.

But given that Ciattarelli is campaigning in minority communities, this won’t be a piece of cake.

TRUMP GOT THE ENTIRE VIRGINIA GOP TICKET, WE HAVE NOT OFFICIALLY ENDORSED EARLE-SEARS YET

In Virginia, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, was coasting to victory against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who would otherwise be the first Black woman to win a statewide race. Trump did not endorse him.

But Spanberger showed a clear lack of courage, and this injured him.

Democrat Jay Jones, the attorney general candidate, is widely viewed as a disgrace. He texted a colleague saying he had “two bullets” for then-House speaker Todd Gilbert. Oh, and he wants to see his children die.

Spanberger could have insisted that withdrawing from the race was absolutely appalling behavior. But he didn’t. He currently supports Jay Jones. This made him look like another self-serving political hack.

Embattled attorney general candidate Jay Jones remains a political albatross for Virginia Democrats. (Maxine Wallace/Washington Post/Getty Images)

The press largely gave Spanberger a pass and turned this into a story for a day or two before moving on. But Earle-Sears, a veteran fighter, devoted much of her advertising budget to the issue and also highlighted transgender women in the discussion of men’s sports.

Spanberger is running against the Trump economy as a way to solve the affordability problem in the state. Trump calls his tariffs “a massive tax increase on Virginians.”

Virginia isn’t as blue as New Jersey, but the northern suburbs certainly are; where large numbers of federal workers were laid off or did not receive their pay during the shutdown.

Spanberger is trying to convert some Trump voters in rural areas. But as former senator Joe Manchin told Politico, “If you have a ‘D’ next to your name in rural America (grassroots, rural, religious America), they’re going to lose, no matter how hard they try to change it.”

Spanberger is still on track to win by double digits in the state won by Kamala Harris; So it looks like it’s weathered the storm.

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Tired of traveling abroad and brokering wars, Trump has shown little interest in this week’s election, at least publicly. He did not personally campaign on behalf of anyone during the last period. It’s as if he knows he has a losing hand (possible losses in left-leaning states) and doesn’t want to be associated with the outcome.

Barack Obama, the de facto champion of leaderless Democrats, campaigned on behalf of Spanberger and Sherrill on Saturday.

Former President Barack Obama joined Spanberger and Sherrill, pictured, on the campaign trail over the weekend. (Steve Helber/AP Photo)

This brings us to New York City and its toxic, melting pot, predominantly ethnic, punch-in-the-nose brand of politics.

Here Trump plays a role, constantly accusing prominent Zohran Mamdani, who would be the city’s first Muslim mayor, of being a “communist.”

Republicans are already running against Mamdani, a self-proclaimed socialist. He is a gift from the political gods. They’re making him the face of the Democratic Party.

Andrew Cuomo, who learned politics from his father Mario, was outclassed by Mamdani when I first met him. Polls are suddenly tightening but charismatic Mamdani still has a good chance of winning, largely because former Guardian Angel Republican Curtis Sliwa, who has no chance, has refused to drop out of the election.

Hard-edged Cuomo is hardly an ideal candidate. He was forced to resign as governor four years ago following multiple allegations of sexual harassment, which he denied.

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Although Hakeem Jeffries did not recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, he eventually gave Mamdani lukewarm support because he was the expected winner. If that happens, Mamdani won’t be able to deliver on most of his promises of free goods and services because he’ll need help from Albany and other powerhouses.

And that will be hung around the neck of every Democrat running in places that are much less liberal than the five boroughs. Republicans will ensure that Mamdani becomes the most famous Democrat in the country and the symbol of a far-left party, whether he is right or not.

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Off-year elections are usually a period of postponement that tests turnout when the incumbent president is not on the ballot. But this one has more twists and turns than the LA Dodgers holding on by their fingernails to beat the Toronto Blue Jays.