Lowy Lecture: ASIO boss Mike Burgess warns Australia’s social cohesion is ‘fraying’ from multiple threats

At least three foreign countries are willing to assassinate political opponents on Australian soil and are capable of carrying out “lethal targeting”, the country’s chief spy has warned.

In a sombre speech at the Lowy Institute at Sydney Town Hall on Tuesday night, ASIO chief executive Mike Burgess did not name countries posing the threat but said foreign governments could try to cover their tracks using “punitive disruptions”, just as Iran did when it orchestrated recent anti-Semitic attacks in Sydney and Melbourne.

“Given the deteriorating state of our security environment and the increasing willingness of regimes to conduct high-damage operations, ASIO assesses that there is a realistic possibility that a foreign government will attempt to assassinate a perceived dissident in Australia. This threat is real,” he said.

“We believe there are at least three countries here willing and able to conduct lethal targeting.

“It’s entirely possible that regimes will try to hide their involvement by imposing punitive blackouts, as Iran did when it orchestrated arson attacks.”

The head of Australia’s domestic intelligence service also warned that intolerance and anti-authoritarian beliefs were spreading and growing on an unprecedented scale and that the country’s social cohesion was being “eroded” by “multiple, cascading and intersecting threats”.

“What we see today is happening on a different scale, with different dynamics,” he said.

“Complaints are increasing. Intolerance is increasing. Provocative rhetoric and behavior are normalized. Anti-authoritarian beliefs are spreading.”

He divided the actors who are tearing apart the social fabric of the country into three categories, describing them as “victims”, “opportunists” and “nation states”.

“Angry, alienated individuals embrace anti-authoritarian ideologies and conspiracy theories,” he said, describing the victim group.

“Engaging in vicious arguments and non-peaceful protests. Some combine multiple faiths to create new hybrid ideologies.

“It is important to understand that there is significant diversity in this group. It is neither accurate nor helpful to suggest, for example, that all victims are ‘sovereign citizens’.”

He said “Opportunists” were exploiting cracks in social harmony to advance extremist policies.

“They are skilled at exploiting gaps or cracks in social cohesion, containing and harvesting grievances,” Mr. Burgess said.

“An example of this is when nationalist and racist violent extremists try to take advantage of the so-called Australia March rallies.

“The largest neo-Nazi group, the National Socialist Network (or White Australia, as it rebranded itself), described the demonstrations as a means of raising its profile.

“He strategically and opportunistically exploited organizers’ complaints about immigration and the cost of living.”

He warned about the actions of anarchist and revolutionary extremist groups that emerged in the wake of the October 7 attack on Israel, citing disturbing video of an anti-Israel underground group threatening violence against Lovitt Technologies employees in Sydney in July.

He also warned that anti-Israel rhetoric by the religious extremist group Hizb ut Tahrir “fuels and normalizes broader anti-Semitic narratives.”

“Although a formation like Hizb ut Tahrir is religiously motivated, its provocative behavior, aggressive rhetoric and insidious strategy are very similar to the tactics of the National Socialist Network,” he said.

“The organization’s condemnation of Israel and Jews attracts media attention and helps recruit members, but it deliberately refrains from encouraging politically motivated acts of violence on the ground.

“Hizb ut Tahrir wants to test and expand the boundaries of legality without pushing it. As with neo-Nazis, this does not make its behavior acceptable.”

However, he emphasized that the threat posed by “cunning” nation-state actors who deliberately seek to “set fire to the fabric” outweighs the challenges posed by aggrieved and opportunistic elements.

He said “state-sanctioned trolls” were also using the internet and social media to incite hatred and anger between different communities in Australia.

“We recently uncovered links between pro-Russian influencers in Australia and an offshore media outlet that almost certainly received instructions from Russian intelligence,” he said.

“Australians are publishing and spreading extreme online narratives legitimizing the invasion of Ukraine and condemning Australia’s support for Kiev.

“By deliberately concealing their connections to and possible direction from Moscow, propagandists seek to hijack and inflame legitimate debate. They use social media to spread vitriolic, polarizing commentary about anti-immigrant protests and pro-Palestinian marches.”

Mr Burgess said a “whole of society” response would be required to maintain harmony.

“Each of us has a duty to protect our social integrity. Our words are important, our decisions are important, our actions are important,” he said.

“In an age of unprecedented ways to communicate, I fear we have lost the ability to speak.

“Or at least we are losing the ability to speak with civility, to argue with respect, to disagree with restraint.

“Exchanging ideas instead of excessive insults, slogans or rhetorical jabs. Being right without being wrong.”