Lockdowns could have been avoided, COVID inquiry report finds as it condemns ‘too little, too late’ response and claims 23,000 lives could have been saved

Lockdowns could have been avoided if the government had intervened earlier in the Covid-19 outbreak, the official investigation concludes today.

He also claimed that the 23,000 deaths from the virus could have been saved if a national lockdown had been implemented just a week earlier, while adding that the first lockdown in March 2020 might have been unnecessary if quicker action had been taken.

Baroness Hallett, chair of the Covid-19 Inquiry, announced Whitehall was so poorly prepared for the devastating virus that ministers were forced to make “difficult decisions” that meant “too little, too late”.

He also concluded that repeated lockdowns “left permanent scars on society and the economy,” bringing ordinary childhood to a halt and delaying diagnosis and treatment of other health problems.

He condemned the failures of key scientists and senior civil servants, the ‘toxic’ and ‘destabilizing’ influence of No 10 adviser Dominic Cummings and indecisive ministers both in London and in the devolved governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. They had failed to appreciate the “serious and immediate threat” posed by the coronavirus, which spread rapidly in the first three months of 2020.

In her damning second report, Lady Hallett concludes that the first lockdown, which began on 23 March 2020, ‘may have lasted less or not been necessary at all’ if restrictions such as self-isolation and social distancing had been introduced even a week earlier.

He wrote: ‘Had a mandatory lockdown been imposed on or immediately after 16 March 2020, modeling suggests there would have been around 23,000 fewer deaths in the first wave in England alone.’ He said that the number of deaths “will have decreased by 48 percent” during this period.

Among the damning findings of its 760-page report, it found:

• Boris Johnson was too slow and ‘should have realized sooner that this was an emergency requiring prime ministerial leadership’
• Sir Christopher Wormald, who now runs Sir Keir Starmer’s civil service, presided over ‘misleading assurances’ about the UK’s preparedness when he was in charge of the health department.
• It has also failed to correct Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s ‘over-enthusiastic’ promises to No 10 Downing Street about getting the crisis under control.
• The vast majority of children were not at risk of serious direct harm from Covid-19 but were “hugely harmed by school closures and stay-at-home mandates”.
• Children were ‘not always given priority’ and the government was not prepared for the ‘sudden and monumental task’ of educating children at home.

A nearly abandoned Piccadilly Circus in London during England’s third national lockdown in January 2021

Lady Hallett said a mandatory lockdown was considered “already too late”, adding that it had “become inevitable due to the actions and omissions of four governments”.

The peer and former Court of Appeal judge said politicians were making decisions ‘in conditions of extreme pressure’ but ‘I can still summarize my findings on the response as ‘too little, too late’.’

Covid was the most significant event in UK history since the Second World War; Millions were ordered to stay at home, with a devastating impact on schoolchildren and billions of pounds were spent to support the economy during a series of lockdowns.

Lady Hallett concluded: ‘If the UK had been better prepared, there would have been fewer deaths, socio-economic costs would have been significantly reduced and some of the decisions politicians had to make would have been much simpler.’

He said: ‘While nationwide lockdowns in 2020 and 2021 undoubtedly saved lives, they also left lasting scars on society and the economy, brought ordinary childhood to a halt, delayed diagnosis and treatment of other health problems, and worsened social inequalities.’

The head of the inquiry condemned officials and politicians for their lukewarm response as the deadly disease spread from China to Thailand, South Korea and then Italy in January 2020. He described February that year as a ‘lost month’ in which the UK could have made preparations that would have saved tens of thousands of lives.

The general lack of urgency in the government was ‘inexcusable’.

Baroness Hallett, head of Covid Inquiry, published her second damning report on the pandemic on Thursday

Then Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty and then Health Secretary Matt Hancock arrived at 10 Downing Street on 17 March 2020, a week before the first lockdown.

He observed that Mr Cummings blamed the Cabinet Office and the Department for Health for ‘not ringing alarm bells at this point’. ‘They were going skiing away.’

Lady Hallett said: ‘No government in the UK was adequately prepared for the challenges and risks of a national lockdown.’

Later, as the second lockdown approached, he criticized Mr Johnson, who “changed his mind repeatedly throughout September and October 2020 about whether to impose tougher restrictions and failed to make timely decisions”.

He said ‘the weakness of the restrictions used and Mr Johnson’s release have enabled the virus to continue to spread rapidly’. Mr Cummings described Mr Johnson as ‘bouncing back and forth’ on whether tough restrictions should be imposed in March 2020.

Lady Hallett said: ‘Mr Johnson’s failure to appreciate the urgency of the situation was due to his optimism that it would amount to nothing, his skepticism arising from the UK’s previous experience with infectious diseases and, inevitably, his attention being on other government priorities.

‘This was compounded by the misleading assurances he received from the Cabinet Office and the Department of Health and Social Care that pandemic planning was sound.’

However, in early March 2020, scientific advice from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), including chief medical officer Sir Chris Whitty, noted that the government should not impose restrictions too early, before the virus spreads, to avoid public ‘fatigue’.

And he had harsh words for the inquiry’s chairman, Mr Cummings. He said he had obtained ‘compelling evidence’ that the Prime Minister’s most senior adviser had many good qualities but also ‘materially contributed to the toxic and sexist workplace culture at the heart of the UK government’, including using ‘offensive, sexualized and misogynistic language’.

They later speak with Prime Minister Boris Johnson (pictured, centre), Mr Whitty (left) and Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance (right) at a press conference in March 2020.

He branded her a ‘destabilizing influence’ who ‘poisoned the atmosphere at 10 Downing Street and undermined the prime minister’s authority’ at a time of crisis.

Lady Hallett praised the UK becoming the first country in the world to approve the vaccine in December 2020 as ‘a remarkable achievement and a decisive turning point in the pandemic’.

Lady Hallett said Mr Johnson “accepted a second lockdown would be disastrous”, but the inquiry heard there was “no meaningful pattern” of the devastating costs a national lockdown would impose on the economy.

The Covid-19 Inquiry is divided into modules and this was the conclusion of the second module, where 166 witnesses gave oral evidence at public hearings over nine weeks in 2023 and 2024.