Pakistan attempting to establish anti-Taliban front in Afghanistan?

Who will stage a coup this time? Pakistan or Taliban? This question arises due to Islamabad’s threat to Kabul. The Shahbaz government sent a message to the Taliban through Turkish representatives who were mediating in the talks between Pakistan and the Taliban. This message states that the Taliban must accept Pakistan’s security demands, that is, withdraw its support from Tehreek-e-Taliban. Pakistan’s second biggest demand is to reduce the Taliban’s increasing military deployment on the border. Finally, it is stated that if the Taliban does not accept these conditions, a regime change will occur in Kabul.

Shahbaz and Munir’s aim is to increase the pressure on the Taliban, so that they can cut off the Taliban’s support for the Pashtun rebels and declare victory in Pakistan. To what extent has Pakistan’s policy towards the Taliban suddenly changed?

The Taliban, whom Pakistan once called the ‘Islamic Brotherhood’, have now become a group of terrorists according to the definition of the Pakistani government. Pakistan’s plans for the Taliban are not limited to just lip service; Pakistani army and ISI are also trying to establish a new anti-Taliban front in Afghanistan. Which actors did Pakistan use to remove the Taliban from power?

In August this year, Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI expanded its intelligence agreement with Tajikistan. ISI aims to reach Ahmed Shah Massoud’s fighters in Afghanistan through Tajikistan. Masood’s fighters consistently opposed the Taliban. Pakistan also contacted the leader of Uzbek fighters, Abdul Rashid Dostum. Tensions between Dostum and the Taliban have been high since 2023. ISI also contacted Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-e-Islami to challenge the Taliban in the Wakhan Corridor. This means that Munir aims to create a civil war-like situation in Afghanistan again.

The Taliban say they are ready to remove the Tehreek-e-Taliban from the Pakistan border in exchange for a ceasefire. Taliban representatives announced that they would resettle Pashtun insurgents in northern Afghanistan, where anti-Taliban militias are located. Thus, the Taliban will challenge the groups that Pakistan is trying to influence in the form of TTP.