Government shutdown looms again as January 31 deadline approaches

It won’t get better.

The government shut down for a record 43 days this fall. And if you think you’ve seen the worst of Congress, it really won’t get any better if the majority of the federal government shuts down in the early hours of January 31.

This is true. Lawmakers have yet to address the issues that led to this year’s surprising shutdown. Some of these are legal. Some are about politics. And the biggest problems are political.

Frankly, the political ones can be the most challenging.

Let’s start with the most obvious ways to extinguish Washington’s winter crisis.

THE SHUTDOWN IS OVER, BUT WASHINGTON’S BUDGET FIGHT IS JUST BEGINNING

The interim bill to reopen the government included three bills that would fund large parts of the federal government through Sept. 30, 2027, the end of the current fiscal year. Congress passes three of the 12 appropriations bills that govern the government each year. These are the Legislative Branch of Congress, Military Construction/VA for military construction programs, and the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department of Agriculture. Although this is three out of 12 annual spending bills, it is not even close to a “quarter” of all spending that Congress appropriates annually. More than half of spending controlled by Congress goes to the Pentagon alone. Therefore, to avoid a repeat of this fall at 12:00:01 on Saturday, January 31, the House and Senate must approve all nine of the remaining annual bills.

This is a tall order. But leading appropriators on both sides of the aisle and the Capitol say there has been marked progress on these bills. Still, synchronizing everything in just over two months (with Congress out of session again this week and an announcement scheduled for Christmas and New Year’s) seems like a fateful doomsday date for some. Note that Congress does not stay in session in late July and August to consider some of the same bills. One wonders why things would be different now.

And we couldn’t even get to the pesky questions hidden inside individual bills.

THE SHUTDOWN STARTED THE DEBATE FOR STRATEGISTS: WILL TRUMP AND THE GOP PAY THE POLITICAL PRICE IN 2026?

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) speaks at a press conference with other members of the Senate Republican leadership following a policy luncheon on October 28, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Nathan Posner/Anatolia via Getty Images)

The “Worker-H” bill, which funds the Department of Labor along with Health and Human Services, is always a political farce. Imagine how tough a bill would be this time around, with both parties fighting over policies dictated by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on vaccines and other controversial health claims. This says nothing of the core issue that led Democrats to oppose government funding in September: the extension of Obamacare health subsidies.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R.S.D.) is now promising a vote on extending these tax credits to cover increases in health care costs. But no one knows what this package will look like. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green, R-Ga. Some Republicans now embrace subsidies, such as He is now retiring in January. Other Republicans are looking for ways to reform the program. Democrats may oppose this. And yet other conservatives are using this as an opportunity to possibly torpedo Obamacare, which has been the bane of their existence since 2009.

This may be the greatest political irony. Imagine a world where Republicans tried to repeal and replace Obamacare from 2009 to 2017, but stumbled at every turn. Then in 2025, Democrats refused to vote to fund the government in support of Obamacare, which is what ultimately led to the program being overturned.

Wow.

Moreover, President Trump is threatening to veto any bill that extends Obamacare subsidies.

So if Democrats don’t abandon their tactics this fall, we may already find ourselves drifting toward another government shutdown.

Many of the issues we discuss address legislative and policy disputes that lawmakers must resolve before the end of January. But political challenges overshadow these problems.

Imagine a recap of what’s unfolding this fall. Most Democrats refuse to fund the government. But a coalition of some Democrats and mostly Republicans is keeping the government afloat to prevent another shutdown.

The accusations within the Democratic Party will be shocking. Expect epic infighting as Democrats roll out another strategy. There will be calls to impeach Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (DY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (DY); although both side with most Democrats in avoiding funding the government unless there is a deal on health care money.

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN HAS BECOME THE LONGEST DURATION IN US HISTORY AS DEMOCRATS ENJOY OBAMACARE

Senator Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (DY) speaks after a policy luncheon on Capitol Hill on September 24, 2024 in Washington. (Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo)

Democrats may find themselves locked in a civil war in the early days of 2026, just as they see opportunities to defeat Republicans at the ballot box in the 2026 midterm elections. On paper, Democrats have a very good chance of taking control of the House of Representatives. The Senate is a reach based on a map that largely favors the GOP. But Democrats think they could be within striking distance if they hold the seats of retiring Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., would have to seek re-election in a competitive state. Democrats will then need to flip the seat of retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., as well as flip Ohio and perhaps pull an armadillo out of a hat in Texas. It’s not impossible. But it’s very challenging.

Internecine squabbles could trip Democrats up on this very narrow Senate path. The same goes for Parliament. Democrats need to appear united heading into the 2026 midterm elections. However, fighting over shutting down government number 1 or shutting down government number 2 is of no use to the party.

Republicans are not inoculated from the fraudulent policies tied to shutdowns in 2026.

Democrats voted to shut down health care this fall. And if Republicans don’t give in to Democrats’ demand for expanded health care subsidies, the GOP could find itself upset with voters on the issue. If so, Democrats may not have won the government shutdown battle. But perhaps they will prevail in the war: the 2026 midterms.

CLICK TO DOWNLOAD FOX NEWS APPLICATION

That’s why few breathed after Congress voted to reopen the government last week. Everyone called to Capitol Hill knows that things probably won’t get better in the next nine weeks.

As bad as this fall has been, things could get worse.