Thanksgiving air travel expected to hit record levels, airlines say

U.S. airlines are forecasting a new record Thanksgiving holiday travel season and are now optimistic that the government shutdown that made travel difficult is over.

Airlines will carry more than 31 million passengers between Friday, November 21 and Monday, December 1, according to a forecast made on Thursday by Airlines for America, the lobbying group that represents the largest US airlines. The busiest days are expected to be the Sunday after Thanksgiving, with about 3.4 million passengers flying, followed by the Monday after Thanksgiving, with about 3.1 passengers.

Airline executives expressed relief after the longest government shutdown ended on November 12. A4A said flights were delayed and canceled due to a shortage of air traffic controllers who were forced to work without regular salaries, disrupting the travel plans of approximately 6 million people.

The industry is now pushing lawmakers to pass legislation that would ensure air traffic controllers are paid in the event of another shutdown; executives have complained in recent weeks that air travel has become a political bargaining chip. The latest bill only funds the government through January, so industry members are hoping to avoid a repeat of the shutdown just before the winter break and spring break seasons begin.

Bank of America estimated that major network airlines could see a $150 million to $200 million drop in operating income and smaller carriers would see a $100 million impact due to the closure, but airlines have yet to release revised estimates.

Some travelers appeared to be waiting for the quarantine to end before booking travel.

United Airlines It said bookings between Nov. 15 and Nov. 16 were up 16% compared to the previous weekend, when disruptions to air travel increased.

The carrier also said international travel bookings were at a record high for the holiday season, up 10% from last year, with Cancun, Mexico, and major European hubs in London and Frankfurt, Germany, being the top destinations.

Overall, United estimates it will fly 6.6 million customers between Nov. 20 and Dec. 2, an increase of more than 4% from last year.

International capacity at the largest U.S. carriers increased about 5% between Nov. 26 and Nov. 30 compared to the similar period last year, while domestic capacity was about 2% higher, according to aviation data firm Cirium.

American Airlines It said it plans to operate 80,759 flights from November 20 to December 2, which is more than any other airline.

“The Thanksgiving holiday season is one of the busiest and most important periods for our customers; the stakes are high and the American team is ready to deliver,” David Seymour, American’s chief operating officer, said in a press release.

But not all airlines have strengthened their schedules. Budget carrier Spirit Airlines has gone bankrupt for the second time in less than a year, slashing capacity and furloughing hundreds of pilots to cut costs in an effort to find firmer financial footing.

According to Cirium data, Spirit’s domestic flight capacity decreased by nearly 40% compared to the previous year.