Can Europe prevent an unjust ‘peace’ in Ukraine – and what is at stake if it fails? | World news

WWhile Ukraine’s future lies in the geopolitical bloc, Europe is facing its moment of truth. Is he ready to defend Kiev against the imposition of an unstable “peace” that rewards Vladimir Putin and undermines the security of the entire continent?

Not for the first time, European governments have been left in the dark about secret US-backed proposals to end Russia’s war. The latest incendiary 28-point plan, leaked to the media last week, was so biased in Russia’s favor that there are suspicions it was partly devised in the Kremlin (complete with poorly translated Russian syntax).

The terms of this stunningly punitive plan would freeze the battle lines but require Kiev to give up territory it still controlled; greatly reduced the size of his army; granting amnesty for Russian atrocities and war crimes; and stay away from NATO altogether. No wonder President Zelenskyy told his citizens that they were facing one of the most difficult moments in their history.

However, Donald Trump, apparently in a rush to claim credit for peace at any cost, issued Ukraine an ultimatum: Sign Russia’s shopping list by Thanksgiving or risk losing the implied US intelligence and military aid: a not-so-festive deadline.

The days since have felt like a repeat of August, when Trump rolled out the red carpet for Putin in Alaska and European leaders standing on the sidelines rushed en masse to the White House past Zelenskyy to limit the damage.

This time, emergency talks in Geneva reportedly changed the plan to “protect Ukraine’s sovereignty” despite Trump scolding the Ukrainian president for “zero gratitude.” Trump softened his language (and deadline), claiming that negotiations with Ukraine were bearing fruit and that his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, would return to Moscow soon.

If a more acceptable deal is on the horizon, it may be because France, Germany and Britain are helping Ukraine back down. It’s not just about solidarity: These countries may need to “put their shoes on the ground” to pursue a final agreement.

foot in the door

But there is no reason to believe that Moscow would accept any plan that did not include the surrender of Kiev, or even that Russia was trying to end the war. “Putin sees no problem in continuing the war,” Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center told the Guardian’s Russia affairs correspondent Pjotr ​​Sauer.

At such a dangerous moment, more than ever, the onus is on Europe to demand a just peace for Ukraine, both morally and in its personal interests for the security of Ukraine’s European neighbors.

But how can Europe prevent the United States from getting in stitches, especially if Moscow continues its most unreasonable territorial claims and Trump loses patience with Zelenskyy? Analysts say it’s important to get ahead of any Trump/Putin summit. Ukraine’s European supporters need to be clearer against Trump that Ukraine’s security is Europe’s security.

“The Europeans complain about not being at the table, but they also have a mandate,” says Jana Kobzova, a Ukraine expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He said on thinktank’s podcast:. “They might get their foot in the door and say these are things we cannot tolerate.”

Europe is already bearing much of the cost of Ukraine’s resistance, although it is too hesitant, divided or indifferent to give Kiev the negotiating cards it needs.

ruble roulette

The most game-changing part of Europe is neuralgic (and Belgium says (legally dubious) EU plan for a 140 billion euro “compensation loan” for Ukraine, secured by billions of dollars of Russian central bank deposits frozen in the west by EU sanctions. The seized assets (mostly held in a warehouse in Belgium) could transform Ukraine’s near-bankruptcy and help it win the war. However, the proposal also stipulates that $100 billion of these Russian assets will be used for investment and 50% of the profits will remain in the United States. Now the EU urgently needs to decide whether it wants to move to assets first or dig deep to find alternative cash.

Brussels suspects that the Russian economy is in a worse shape than admitted, thanks to measures such as: New ban from the EU Regarding Russia’s gas imports. “Them [Moscow] They want us to believe that they can continue this war forever. This is not true,” EU high representative and former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told the BBC.

If Moscow gets away with changing borders by force, the situation would be dangerous for Europe. “If Ukraine capitulates according to Russia’s plan, war in the rest of Europe is one step closer, and the Europeans understand that. So they’re staying loyal to Ukraine not out of good will, but because they understand their own security is at risk,” Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian Institute of International Relations and a Guardian Europe contributor, told me.

According to Tocci, the most likely medium-term scenario is not Ukraine surrendering, but the US and Russia (at the instigation of US hawks, including JD Vance) reaching a bilateral agreement and Europe remaining committed to Ukraine.

“In this scenario, Europeans should stop deluding themselves that they can work with Trump on Ukraine. They should warmly thank the US president and persuade him to step aside and invest in another conflict to get the Nobel peace prize. Either way, the war continues for now.”

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