Why Putin and Modi are meeting in Delhi

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in India on a two-day visit, where he was embraced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of the annual summit organized by both countries.

Delhi and Moscow are expected to sign a number of agreements during the visit, which comes months after the US increased pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil.

This also comes after US President Donald Trump’s administration held a series of talks with Russia and Ukraine in a bid to end the war.

India and Russia have been close allies for decades, and Putin and Modi have a warm relationship. Here’s a look at why they both need each other and what to look for when they meet.

By Steve Rosenberg

Why are relations with India key for the Kremlin?

To start, look at the numbers:

• It has a population of approximately one and a half billion.

• Economic growth exceeded 8 percent. India is the world’s fastest growing major economy.

This makes it an extremely attractive market for Russian goods and resources, especially oil.

India is the world’s third largest consumer of crude oil and purchases large amounts of oil from Russia. This wasn’t always the case. Before the Kremlin’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, only 2.5% of India’s oil imports came from Russia.

This figure rose to 35% as India benefited from price cuts in Russia due to sanctions against Moscow and Russia’s limited access to the European market.

India was happy. Washington less so.

Earlier this year, the Trump administration imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods, arguing that India was helping finance the Kremlin’s war chest by buying oil from Russia. Orders for Russian oil from India have since fallen. President Putin will want India to continue purchasing.

For Moscow, arms sales to India have been another priority since the Soviet period. Before Putin’s visit, there were reports that India was planning to purchase state-of-the-art Russian warplanes and air defense systems.

Russia, which is facing a labor shortage, also sees India as a valuable source of skilled workers.

But there is also geopolitics involved.

The Kremlin likes to show that Western efforts to isolate itself over the war in Ukraine have failed.

Flying to India and meeting with Prime Minister Modi is one way to do this.

So is traveling to China and meeting with Xi Jinping, as Putin did three months ago. He met Modi on the same trip. The image of the three leaders smiling and chatting together gave the message that, despite the war in Ukraine, Moscow has strong allies who support the concept of a “multipolar world”.

Russia speaks highly of its “unlimited partnership” with China.

Its “special and privileged strategic partnership” with India is equally vocal.

This is in stark contrast to Moscow’s tense relations with the European Union.

“I think the Kremlin is sure that the West, including Europe, has completely failed,” Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrei Kolesnikov said.

“We are not isolated, because we have connections with Asia and the Global South. This is the future in economic terms. In this sense, Russia, like the Soviet Union, has returned as the main actor in these parts of the world. But even the Soviet Union had special channels and connections with the USA, West Germany and France. It had a multi-vector policy.

“But now we are completely isolated from Europe. This is an unprecedented situation. Our philosophers always said that Russia was part of Europe. Now we are not. This is a great failure and a great loss. I am sure part of Russia’s political and entrepreneurial class dreams of returning to Europe and doing business not only with China and India.”

But this week we expect to hear about Russia-India friendship, trade agreements and increased economic cooperation between Moscow and Delhi.

By Vikas Pandey

Putin’s visit to Delhi comes at a very important time for Modi and India’s global goals.

India-Russia ties date back to the Soviet era and continue despite the changing geopolitical landscape.

It is claimed that Putin has spent more time and energy on this relationship than any other Russian leader before him.

Modi, on the other hand, maintained that dialogue was the only way to resolve the dispute, despite coming under intense pressure from Western governments to criticize Russia for its war in Ukraine.

This was the introduction of India’s “strategic autonomy”; While Modi had a certain place in the geopolitical order, he maintained close relations with Moscow while also maintaining relations with the West.

This worked, until Trump returned to the White House. India-US relations have fallen to an all-time low in recent months as the two countries have failed to resolve the tariff impasse.

In this context, Putin’s visit is more important than ever for Modi because it will test India’s geopolitical autonomy. Here he will walk the proverbial diplomatic tightrope.

Modi wants to show Indians both at home and around the world that he still sees Putin as his ally and has not bowed to pressure from Trump, whom he had previously called his “true friend”.

But he also faced pressure from his allies in Europe; Just this week the German, French and British ambassadors to India wrote a rare letter. joint article In a major newspaper criticizing Russia’s stance on Ukraine.

Modi will therefore have to ensure that strengthening India-Russia ties does not overshadow ongoing trade negotiations with the US and partnership with Europe.

“The challenge for India is the strategic balance of maintaining autonomy while managing pressure from Washington and dependence on Moscow,” said the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank.

Modi’s other priority will be to unlock the bilateral trade potential between India and Russia.

Analysts often say the economic relationship between the two powerful allies has underperformed for decades.

Bilateral trade increased from just $8.1 billion in 2020 to $68.72 billion by the end of March 2025. This was largely due to India sharply increasing its purchases of discounted Russian oil. This tipped the balance heavily in Russia’s favor, which is something Modi would like to correct.

While Indian firms have already reduced oil purchases from Russia to avoid Washington’s sanctions, the two countries will look at other areas to increase trade.

Defense is the easiest choice. India’s defense imports from Russia have fallen to 36% between 2020 and 2024, from peaks of 72% in 2010-2015 and 55% between 2015 and 2019, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

This was largely due to India’s attempt to diversify its defense portfolio and increase domestic production.

But a closer look at these numbers tells a different story. Many Indian defense platforms still rely heavily on Russia. Most of the 29 air force squadrons use Russian Sukhoi-30 jets.

India’s limited armed conflict with Pakistan in May this year proved the indispensable role of Russian platforms such as S-400 air defense systems in its armed forces, but also showed weak points that the country urgently needs to correct.

Reports indicate that India is looking to purchase upgraded S-500 systems and Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets. Pakistan’s purchase of the Chinese-made J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighter jet has not gone unnoticed in Delhi and it is looking to secure a similar jet as soon as possible.

But Russia is already facing a shortage of critical components due to sanctions and the war in Ukraine. The deadline for the delivery of some S-400 units has reportedly been postponed to 2026. Modi will ask Putin for some guarantees on the timeline.

Modi will also want Russia’s economy to open up space for Indian products to correct the massive trade imbalance.

“Consumer-focused and high-visibility categories remain marginal: smartphones ($75.9 million), shrimp ($75.7 million), meat ($63 million) and clothing at just $20.94 million, underscoring India’s limited penetration in Russia’s retail markets and electronics value chains despite geopolitical volatility,” GTRI said.

Modi aims to position Indian goods in the Russian market, especially once the war ends and Moscow reintegrates into the global economy.

It would seek to reduce trade dependence on oil and defense and aim for a deal that would strengthen ties with Russia while leaving room to deepen relations with the West.

“Putin’s visit is not a nostalgic return to Cold War diplomacy. This is a negotiation about risk, supply chains and economic insulation. A modest outcome will secure oil and defense; an ambitious outcome will reshape the regional economy,” GTRI said. he said.

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