Young people are getting a ‘raw deal’, and that’s good news for the Greens and Reform

“If I were a politician, I’d be like, ‘Wow, there’s a demographic ticking time bomb.’ You’ve got people of voting age now, in their 30s, who haven’t had a good deal, and they’re starting to vote with their feet.”

Whether it’s paying for a decent place to live, tackling student debt or finding a suitable job, a leader in the youth sector warns the government must urgently deal with the deep issues affecting young people.

What about the most acute? Approximately one million people do not work, do not study and do not study anything – defined by this ugly acronym, Neet (not in education, employment or training).

This is not a new problem; Over the years I have heard countless ministers promise to take big, bold action to address what many see as an appalling waste of opportunity.

But as the number of Neets grows and the political debate over social assistance grows, perhaps the political risk also increases.

Latest polls show Reform and the Greens strong among under-30s.

An average of four polls of about 2,000 people each time, conducted this fall for the research group More in Common, show that the most popular party among young women is Zack Polanski’s Green party.

Polls show Nigel Farage’s party and the Greens trailing Labour’s 30% among young men by 20%, but Reform leads among young men without a degree.

Despite all the pressure, “it’s no wonder these young people are turning away from mainstream politics and turning instead to parties like Reform and the Greens that promise to burn it all down and start over,” says Luke Tryl of More in Common.

“It would be naive for mainstream parties to assume that these voters will return when they get older,” he adds.

Does the government understand the problem? One minister, Josh Simons, made his thoughts clear this week.

Writing about X, Simons said life in the UK could be “shit” due to economic insecurity and the cost of having children in your 20s, 30s and 40s.

I don’t think Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden would be so blunt. Joining us in the studio tomorrow Talking about the fight against the increasing number of unemployed youth.

But one cabinet minister admits: “It’s a fact that young people are being treated unfairly; youth unemployment is the number one problem, not just for that generation but also for their parents and grandparents.”

The statistics are deplorable. There were 946,000 young people who were not working or studying Between July and September this year, this number increased to more than one in 10 of those aged 16-24.

They are more likely to be young men than young women, and rates are higher in the North East and east of England. More than half have a health problem and nearly a fifth have a mental health problem.

To use the jargon, there are many reasons why a young person may become “economically inactive.”

The cost of education has increased, so it may be a less attractive option. The labor market is not very hungry for young workers, as the economy has been at more or less the same level for years. The epidemic also had a profound impact.

Unemployment is rising across the board, and tax changes and minimum wage increases have made it more expensive for businesses to hire workers; Many fear this will hit young people’s expectations the hardest.

Levels of health problems and mental health problems are also increasing.

Separately after a while In an interview with us earlier this year, the health minister said he thought mental health problems were overdiagnosed.Wes Streeting now suggests he was too quick to judge.

It exists now Called for formal review of evidence to see whether overdiagnosis is a real problem. However, the number of young people who say that their health conditions prevent them from work has increased.

Trying to improve the opportunities of young people who have difficulty finding their place in society is only one aspect of tackling generation gaps.

Housing costs, child care, student debt, discontent and frustration are rife among young voters of all stripes.

The nature of work has also become more unsafe, especially for people new to work; 16-24 year olds are almost six times more likely to be working on a zero-hours contract.

It’s not easy for Labor politicians to say this out loud, given the party’s historical belief in the welfare state, but sometimes, as one minister privately admitted, “if you can make more money by claiming to be sick, it makes sense to do so”.

The benefits system is incredibly complex, but it can create perverse incentives not to look for work.

Although the government was forced to back down on changes to some benefits in the face of angry backbenchers, former Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall introduced the idea of ​​a “right to try”, under which people could try a job without fear of losing their income and without having to re-apply for benefits if it doesn’t work.

Ministers are reluctant to fuel an ugly debate in society about who is “deserving”.

A government source says: “The left has a very paternalistic view that people on benefits can’t look after themselves, while the right thinks these people will never be able to do anything for themselves. We need to reject both of these views.”

But with the costs of increasing welfare and the large numbers of young people not gainfully employed or studying, there is political, financial and perhaps even moral pressure on the government to act.

Former minister Alan Milburn was asked to get to the bottom of what was really going on. His review will be published next year. But in the next few months the government will introduce the Youth Guarantee, which will provide guaranteed paid work to young people who have been unable to find work or study for 18 months.

Pat McFadden will reveal more details on where and when it will start When we talk to him tomorrow.

Are the plans appropriate to the scale of the problem? One minister worries that the government is not willing to be radical enough, and tells me: “We don’t seem interested in smashing a system that doesn’t work for young people.”

Trying to improve the opportunities of young people who have difficulty finding their place in society is only one aspect of tackling generation gaps.

One youth charity boss suggests: “It’s like a guilty secret, the country knows young people are getting a raw deal but nobody does anything about it.”

Ministers deny this claim, but there is an obvious political danger for those who choose not to confront it, and perhaps an opportunity for politicians who do.

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