Will SIR in West Bengal backfire on BJP with ‘no mapping’ voters mostly in Matua areas, negligible in Muslim seats?
West Bengal’s voter list SIR reveals a distortion: Mapless voters are concentrated in Matua-dominated seats and not in Muslim areas, damaging the BJP’s immigrant narrative.
As the Election Commission of India (ECI) has released the draft electoral rolls of West Bengal after Special Intensive Scrutiny (SIR), it appears that the practice of identifying ‘fake’ voters may backfire on the BJP. Before the SIR was launched in West Bengal, BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari claimed that there were “one crore Rohingyas and Bangladeshis” in the state who would be identified and disenfranchised. However, when the draft lists were published on Tuesday after a month-long counting, verification and scrutiny exercise, the ECI was able to identify 1,83,328 voters as ‘fake’ or ‘ghost’.
West Bengal SIR
The SIR in West Bengal also debunked the theory that Muslim illegal immigrants were ahead in the voter list compared to the number of mapless voters. The ECI asked voters to “map” or link their holdings in the current list to an old baseline of the 2002 electoral roll that served as the main historical database. Those who fail to map their holdings on the 2002 voter rolls will be placed in the “No Mapping” category. They will be summoned to mandatory hearings by the ECI asking them to produce higher levels of documentation to determine their eligibility. Herein lies the problem for the BJP, which has raised the issue of illegal immigrants or ‘anupraveshkari’ (Bengali) or ‘ghupathiye’ (Hindi).
No Voter Matching in West Bengal
A critical analysis of the draft electoral rolls shows that the highest concentration of voters in the “No Mapping” category is found in constituencies dominated by the Matua community. These are Dalit Hindu refugees who migrated from Bangladesh under religious persecution. Keeping these people in mind, the BJP brought the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). In 17 Matuas-dominated assembly seats spread across Nadia and North 24 Parganas districts, the ‘No Mapping’ voter category was as high as 9.47%. This rate is more than double the state average of 4.05%. About 36.38% of the people living in these areas belong to the RS community, while 13.66% are minority Muslims.
Special Intensive Review West Bengal
Gaighata, the spiritual center of the Matua community, has 38,490 or 14.51% voters in the “No Mapping” category. Muslims constitute only 7.61% of the voters here. In the neighboring parliament seat Bagda, despite the minority share of 11.97%, the rate of voters without a map is 12.69%. Matua Mahasangha General Secretary Mahitosh Baidya claimed that 20-30% of Matua voters in Gaighata have not been mapped. He expressed concern that a similar situation existed in Ranaghat of North 24 Parganas and Canning constituency of South 24 Parganas.
In contrast, in the Muslim-majority Murshidabad district, the number of unmapped voters is negligible. In Domkal, which has 77.67 per cent Muslim voters, the “No Mapping” category voters are 0.42 per cent, in Raninagar, which has 75.40 per cent Muslim population, the voters without maps are only 0.91 per cent, and in Hariharpara, the proportion of voters in the “No Mapping” category with 74.96 per cent Muslim voters is 0.60 per cent.
BJP illegal immigrants Bengal claim
Contrary to what the Saffron Party had previously thought, linkage with the 2002 voter list under the SIR could serve as a virtual “citizenship trap” for Matua refugees. This goes against the BJP’s messaging of “CAA protection” in critically sensitive areas. It also shatters the narrative of illegal immigrants or ‘anupraveshkari’.
Slamming the BJP, TMC spokesperson Krishanu Mitra said, “Around 58 lakh voters have been deleted from the draft lists. According to BSF data, around 4,000 people crossed back to Bangladesh through the Hakimpur border.” Putting the saffron party on the wrong footing, he said: “We hear that in about 80% Muslim-majority constituencies, the average wipeout rate is 0.6%, while in Matua-majority areas, the average wipeout rate is around 9%.”
Matua community voters
Earlier, Leader of Opposition in West Bengal Assembly Suvendu Adhikari had openly urged the EC to take decisive steps to eliminate these allegedly illegal voters. After the draft voter rolls were published, he stayed away from the press and said that he would speak after the final voter rolls were published. “This is just the beginning. Breakfast has just started. Lunch, tea and then dinner will come,” he said. Adhikari said. He also said that the BJP will respond in detail after the final voter list is published on February 14.
