Here are the 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week
The holiday season is over and things are hectic again as we eagerly await the first trading week of 2026. With fourth-quarter earnings season still a few weeks away, many companies are in a period of corporate blackout. Our focus will be on macroeconomic developments and geopolitical headlines, including developments in Venezuela, where the United States launched a surprise attack over the weekend and deposed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. While the attack on oil-rich Venezuela was unexpected, oil analysts told CNBC that energy markets had already priced in the risk that a dispute with the country would disrupt oil exports. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the United States would manage Venezuela “for a period of time until we can achieve a safe, appropriate and reasonable transition.” We’ll learn more about how investors are digesting the news when futures open Sunday evening. 1. How is the labor market doing? The most important economic update of the week comes on Friday with the release of the December nonfarm payrolls report. This will represent the first real test for the market in 2026 and will help further shape investors’ thinking about when we will see the Fed’s first interest rate cut. According to the CEM FedWatch tool, there is a 50/50 chance of a rate cut at the end of the March Fed meeting. As of Friday, economists polled by FactSet expect 65,000 new jobs in December, an unemployment rate of 4.5% compared to 4.6% in November, and a 3.6% annual increase in hourly earnings. Investors can look for clues to the business numbers by first looking at ADP’s release on Wednesday, but it’s not a perfectly representative sample. Also on Wednesday, the Job Opportunities and Labor Turnover survey (JOLTS) will show how tight the labor market is, which could affect wage inflation forecasts and therefore price inflation. A tighter job market means employers must offer higher pay packages to attract talent. In contrast, a loose labor market means employers face less competition for talent and therefore do not need to increase financial incentives. 2. Is manufacturing growing or shrinking? The ISM manufacturing report, due on Monday, will show whether the sector grew or contracted last month. Economists expect another month of contraction, with a reading below 50 at 48.7, according to FactSet. However, this will be slightly slower than the November rate. The delayed October report on factory orders should be treated with some caution given how backward-looking it is now, although it will tell you what happened in the first month of the quarter that companies haven’t yet reported. 3. Is the long-awaited recovery in housing approaching? The December ISM services report will be released on Wednesday, and economists polled by FactSet expect a slight slowdown but still an expansion starting in November. A reading of 50 is the threshold between contraction and expansion. As of Friday, we’re looking at a forecast of 52, down slightly from November’s 52.6. Finally, housing starts for October will be announced on Friday. Lower interest rates are vital to a housing recovery, but more supply is a long-term response to the affordability crisis facing first-time homebuyers. Monday, January 5 10 a.m. ET: December ISM Manufacturing Tuesday, January 6 After the bell: AAR Crop (AIR) Wednesday, January 7 Before the bell: Albertsons (ACI), UniFirst (UNF), MSC Industrial (MSM) After the bell: Constellation Brands (STZ), Jefferies (JEF) 8:30 a.m. ET: ADP Employment Survey 10 a.m. ET: December ISM Services 10 a.m. ET: JOLTs Thursday, January 8 Before the bell: TD SYNNEX (SNX), Acuity Brands (BEAR), Commercial Metals (CMC), RPM International (RPM) After the bell: Tilray (TLRY), WD-40 (WDFC) 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial Unemployment Claims Friday, January 9 8:30 a.m. ET: December nonfarm payrolls report 10 a.m. ET: November Existing Home Sales (Jim Cramer’s For a complete list of stocks at Charitable Trust, see here.) When you subscribe to the CNBC Investment Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trading alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable foundation’s portfolio. If Jim talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trading alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTMENT CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH THE DISCLAIMERS. NO CIVIL OBLIGATIONS OR DUTIES EXIST OR SHALL BE RESULTING FROM YOUR RECEIVING ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO SPECIFIC RESULT OR PROFIT CAN BE GUARANTEED.
