Crude prices rise as Maduro overthrow casts uncertainty over Venezuela
A motorcycle passes by an oil-themed mural in Caracas, Venezuela, on May 9, 2022.
Nurfoto | Nurfoto | Getty Images
Crude oil prices rose on Monday, The ouster of President Nicolas Maduro by the Trump administration has cast deep uncertainty over oil-rich Venezuela.
US crude oil It closed at $58.32 per barrel, up $1, or 1.74%. Global reference Brent It settled at $61.76 per barrel, up $1.01, or 1.66%.
President Donald Trump made clear on Saturday that U.S. investment in Venezuela’s oil sector was a key goal of the regime change operation that toppled Maduro.
“We’re going to have our largest U.S. oil companies anywhere in the world come in, spend billions of dollars, repair badly deteriorated infrastructure, oil infrastructure,” Trump said at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida.
The president said Saturday that the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil continues.
Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves of 303 billion barrels, or about 17% of the global total, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
At its peak in the late 1990s, Caracas produced about 3.5 million barrels of oil per day, but production has declined significantly since then, according to energy consulting firm Kpler. The South American country currently produces about 800,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler data.
Chevron is the only US oil giant operating in Venezuela. It was exporting about 140,000 barrels per day at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Kpler.
Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, said the impact of Maduro’s ouster on oil prices is uncertain in the short term. In a note to clients on Sunday, Struveyn said production could rise further if a US-backed government is formed and the Trump administration lifts sanctions against Venezuela.
However, the analyst said that Maduro’s removal could also lead to supply disruptions in the short term. Struvyven said that in the long run, US investments that increase Venezuelan production will put downward pressure on oil prices. However, he said the recovery in production will likely be gradual and partial.
Oil executives operating in Venezuela say it would cost $10 billion a year to normalize production and a stable security environment is essential to boost production to historic levels, said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Croft said in a note to clients on Saturday that, if there is an orderly transfer of power, a full easing of sanctions could restore production of several hundred thousand barrels over a 12-month period.
“However, in a chaotic change of power scenario like in Libya or Iraq, all bets are off,” he said.
