Chaos in Iran could cost India dearly

As protests erupt in the streets of Tehran and economic troubles shake the Iranian government, many Indians may wonder: Why should this concern us? The answer is more complex and important than you think. A weak or collapsing Iran could severely limit India’s ability to act independently in a region that is already increasingly difficult to navigate.

Think of India’s strategic position like a chess game in which the board keeps getting smaller. Political turmoil in Bangladesh has changed the equation on our eastern border. Pakistan continues to pose a security threat. China’s influence continues to expand around us neighbour. And now, if Iran, an important partner of the West, becomes unstable, India’s leeway maneuver it gets tighter.

India and Iran have maintained a strong partnership for decades, linked by history, geography and common interests. This relationship isn’t just about friendship; It’s also about survival in a complex region. With Pakistan blocking all of India’s land routes to Afghanistan and Central Asia, Iran remained our only practical gateway to the west. Shiite leaders in Tehran have historically helped counter Pakistan’s influence and made Iran a stable and reliable partner in managing India’s West Asia policy.

So why exactly is Iran so important to India? Let’s break it down.

First, there is Chabahar Port. This is no ordinary port; India’s carefully constructed response to being landlocked from the west. Located on the coast of Iran, Chabahar completely bypasses Pakistan, providing India with direct access to road and rail routes connecting to Central Asia. India invested more than $1 billion (₹ 9,000 crore in the development of this port and related projects). But here’s the problem: connecting roads only work when countries have stable political relations, security guarantees and long-term planning. Any change of government in Tehran could put all of this at risk. Like Rajan Kumar, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, told The Times of India that Chabahar Port could turn from a strategic asset into a major problem for India if there is a power struggle after Iran’s current religious leader.

Second, although Iran is a Muslim-majority country, it has traditionally acted as a counterbalance to Pakistan’s influence. The Shiite leadership in Tehran has openly criticized Sunni extremist groups that promote anti-India views in Pakistan. This stance proved vital in the 1990s and early 2000s, when the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, sought to assert complete control over Afghanistan. India and Iran have worked together to support anti-Taliban forces, preventing Pakistan from achieving its goal of “strategic depth”.— essentially using Afghanistan as its backyard. Even in the mid-1990s, when Pakistan tried to impose global sanctions on India over Kashmir, Iran sided with India. If Iran is now weakened internally, Pakistan could benefit indirectly and the regional balance that keeps Pakistan’s ambitions in check could be significantly weakened.

Third, there is the economic dimension. India is Iran’s eighth largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $1.3 to $1.7 billion (₹11,700 crore to ₹15,300 crore last year). India has already had to slow down parts of the Chabahar project to comply with US sanctions. If the Iranian government changes dramatically, these projects could face even more complexity, which could mean Indian taxpayers’ moneyBillions of rupees may be directly affected.

There’s also the China factor, which adds another layer of complexity. While Iran generally supports India on issues related to Pakistan, its tilt towards China is becoming increasingly evident. China and Iran signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement in 2021, and its impact is clear. China was Iran’s largest trading partner in 2025, with Iran exporting over $14.5 billion worth of goods (approx. ₹1,30,500 crore) to China. Western sanctions have left Tehran heavily reliant on China to buy oil at a discount and finance infrastructure projects. India’s presence in Chabahar acts as a small but important counterweight to China’s growing influence. If instability continues, even a new Iranian government will likely lean on China for security and investment, further expanding Beijing’s regional footprint. According to The Times of India, Iranian officials are currently discussing power plants and port projects financed by China.

So what should India do? Former Indian diplomat Nirupama Menon Rao, who served as India’s Ambassador to the US, China and Sri Lanka, gave some clear advice to NDTV. He said India’s policy towards Iran has been careful and balanced so far and this approach should continue. India needs to maintain some distance because the situation is so volatile that no outside country can reliably control or predict the outcome.

He emphasized that the immediate priority is security— Protecting Indian citizens in Iran and nearby areas through strong consular support and contingency plans. India needs to monitor the situation very carefully from all angles, avoid making hasty judgments and plan for multiple possible scenarios. The most important thing is not just to talk about the crisis; It’s about being prepared for how events might develop, understanding what problems might spread, and keeping important lines of communication open.

If Iran is plunged into long-term instability or disintegration, its impact will spread far beyond its borders. Unrest in West Asia could quickly impact oil prices, maritime trade routes, Indian expatriates, and even encourage the strengthening of militant networks. South Asia will not remain untouched either.

India should be careful in this regard; must remain engaged without overreacting, constantly re-evaluating without jumping to conclusions. In a region where strategic space continues to shrink, losing Iran as a stable partner would mean closing another door to India’s options.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above belong to the author and do not reflect the views of DNA)

(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and Defense, Aerospace and Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany)