The share of Americans medically obese is projected to rise to almost 50% by 2035
A new study on Wednesday Published in JAMA Researchers at the University of Washington in Seattle predicted that by 2035, nearly half of American adults, approximately 126 million people, will be living with obesity. The study is based on data from more than 11 million participants through the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health and Nutrition Examination and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and the independent Gallup Daily Survey.
Estimates show a dramatic increase in the prevalence of obesity in the United States over the past several decades. According to the study, only 19.3% of U.S. adults were obese in 1990. This figure has more than doubled to 42.5% by 2022 and is expected to reach 46.9% by 2035.
The research highlights significant disparities across states, ages, and racial and ethnic groups. While every state is expected to see an increase, the sharpest increases are expected to be in the Midwestern and Southern states.
For example, by 2035, nationwide research predicts that 60% of black women (11.5 million adults) and 54% of Latina women (14.5 million) will suffer from obesity, while 47% of white women (36.5 million) will suffer from obesity. Similarly, 48% of Latino men (13.2 million), 45% of white men (34.4 million), and 43% of Black men (7.61 million) will suffer from the disease.
The findings suggest California will see similar trends in gender and racial disparities. The study predicts that by 2035, obesity rates among Latina and Black women in California will reach nearly 60%, compared to about 40% among their white counterparts. Additionally, rates over 50% were seen among Latino men in California, compared to almost 40% for their white counterparts.
Cedars-Sinai Hospital director of obesity medicine, Dr. “These numbers are not surprising given the systemic inequities that exist” in many California cities, Amanda Velazquez said, pointing to the economic instability, chronic stress and car dependency of Los Angeles and other California metropolitan areas. “Depending on where you are in the city, there are challenges in accessing nutritious food,” Velazquez said. “There are also disparities in access to healthcare, particularly obesity treatment.”
This situation has become even more difficult recently as changes to Medi-Cal plans that went into effect earlier this year mean that hundreds of thousands of low-income Californians no longer have coverage for obesity medications and treatment. “Taking this away is devastating,” Velazquez said.
Despite these disparities, California is expected to fare better than most other states, with obesity rates rising more slowly than the national average.
“There are statewide and local policies that impact food, nutrition and social determinants of health for individuals,” Velazquez said.
Church pointed to measures like SB 12 and SB 677, passed in the mid-2000s that set strict nutrition standards for schools, existing menu labeling laws at both the state and federal level that require restaurants to provide nutrition information on menu items, and the fact that cities like Berkeley and Oakland have implemented local soda taxes as important local and statewide initiatives to keep obesity at bay.
To maintain this momentum, both doctors emphasized that California must continue to strengthen school nutrition standards, expand transportation infrastructure that encourages walking instead of driving, maintain and expand economic crackdowns on unhealthy foods such as beverage taxes, and address food deserts by encouraging new grocery stores and farmers markets in underserved neighborhoods.
Church says future efforts should prioritize Black and Latino populations, identified by the study as those most impacted.
