The last US-Russia nuclear treaty is set to end – should the world worry? | World News
New Delhi: The latest nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia will expire on Thursday, February 5. The New START agreement, signed by then-US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in 2010, has been limiting the world’s two largest nuclear powers for more than a decade.
The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) built on earlier efforts to reduce nuclear stockpiles. The first treaty, START I, was signed between the United States and the Soviet Union in 1991 and remained in force until 2009, aiming to cut off deployed strategic warheads. START II was signed in 1993 but never entered into force, and Russia formally withdrew from it in 2002.
Between 2003 and 2011, the Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty required both countries to reduce operationally deployed warheads but included minimal monitoring based on START I’s mechanisms. This system was replaced by New START in 2011, which was extended for another five years in 2021. The agreement only allows for one extension.
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The agreement does not limit either country to the 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and more than 700 long-range missiles and bombers. They are also allowed to inspect each other’s nuclear sites 18 times a year to ensure compliance; however, inspections have not been carried out since March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and political tensions.
Impact of recent conflicts
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further strained the agreement. In 2023, President Vladimir Putin suspended Moscow’s participation, citing US support for Ukraine. Although Moscow has halted inspections and data sharing, the agreement’s limits technically remain in force. Both countries now rely solely on intelligence to assess compliance, and neither has claimed the other violated warhead limits.
Why is the agreement important?
The United States and Russia together control approximately 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. Moscow is estimated to have approximately 5,459 warheads, of which 1,600 are active, while the United States has approximately 5,550 warheads, of which 3,800 are active. At the height of the Cold War in the mid-1960s, U.S. stockpiles exceeded 31,000 warheads.
The agreement brings predictability and limits to nuclear accumulation. Without it, legal limits on deployed warheads would disappear, potentially encouraging both countries to expand their arsenals.
Perspectives from Washington and Moscow
U.S. political leaders have expressed interest in negotiating a new treaty and suggested including China in future talks on limiting nuclear weapons. They emphasized the importance of preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, given the destructive power of these weapons.
Russian officials have warned that expiring New START would allow both countries to expand their nuclear programs for the first time in decades, but that it would not automatically trigger a nuclear conflict. Moscow has also proposed maintaining existing borders even without a formal agreement to prevent a strategic arms race while continuing to develop new strategic weapons.
Global risks and the future
Analysts warn that without New START limits, strategic planning could be driven by uncertainty and worst-case assumptions, increasing the likelihood of a new arms race. Both countries currently produce nuclear-capable weapons; Some of these do not always carry warheads but are capable of doing so.
Recent military actions have highlighted the continuing importance of nuclear-capable technology. In January, Russia fired a hypersonic missile near the Polish border in western Ukraine. Although the missile did not carry a nuclear warhead, it showed that the modernization of strategic weapons was continuing.
Observers emphasized that the expiration of New START marked a break with more than 50 years of bilateral nuclear arms control. It removes the last legal restrictions on strategic warheads deployed between the United States and Russia and raises concerns about global nuclear stability.
Planning is reportedly underway in Washington and Moscow for a future without a deal, but details remain unclear. Although both countries technically adhere to the terms of New START, the end of inspections and rising geopolitical tensions reveal the fragility of arms control.
Analysts argue that the agreement’s expiration is not just a legal change but also a potential turning point for global nuclear security.
